tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-89507686134703224302023-11-16T03:28:04.301-08:00Touch 'Em AllJonah Birenbaumhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17710512915345313836noreply@blogger.comBlogger38125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8950768613470322430.post-39205579482097803272013-03-29T11:37:00.001-07:002013-03-29T11:44:18.860-07:00Back To The Future: 1993 vs. 2013, Part 2<i><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">With Opening Day impending and expectations running wild, we're taking look at how the 2013 roster compares to the 1993 club, which, as some of you may know, won the World Series. Check out Part 1 of the series <a href="http://touchemalltoronto.blogspot.ca/2013/03/back-to-future-1993-vs-2013-part-1.html?" target="_blank">here</a>. </span></i><br />
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<b><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Rickey Henderson vs. Melky Cabrera</span></b><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">At the 1993 trade deadline, the Blue Jays sent Steve Karsay and PTBNL Jose Herrera to Oakland in exchange for a quick lease on the greatest leadoff hitter in baseball history. Things didn't exactly work out as planned. In his brief stint with the club — Henderson appeared in just 56 games with the Blue Jays, postseason included —the 34-year-old never really found his groove, producing a .675 OPS (.356 OBP) and stealing 22 bases over his final 44 regular season games before struggling throughout the playoffs, too. His performance in Toronto left something to be desired, but in the grand scheme of things, it's little more than small sample flatulence. Furthermore, for the purpose of this exercise, we need to examine the entire year's worth of numbers, as Henderson's 2013 counterpart won't be expected to participate in just 44 games. So despite his struggles in Toronto, 1993 was, on the whole, another successful year for Rickey, as he posted an aggregate .289/.432/.474 line while stealing 53 bases in 61 attempts (87%). The left fielder -- who drew a walk off Mitch Williams to lead off the ninth inning of Game 6 -- worked a free pass in 19.7% of his plate appearances that year while also reaching the 20-homerun plateau for the first time since 1990. Just to give a little bit of context, only four qualified players have enjoyed seasons with a better walk rate since my bar mitzvah (2004): Barry Bonds, Jason Giambi, Jack Cust, and Jose Bautista.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />Many will look at Melky Cabrera's performance over the last two seasons -- .322/.360/.489, 8.2 wins above replacement -- and attribute it, </span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">unequivocally,</span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> to PEDs. Because, y'know, players can't simply get better or whatever. The Blue Jays were a little more thoughtful, exploiting a market inefficiency to lock up a player (on the cheap) that they believe is capable of at least approximating his numbers over the past couple seasons, despite the PED concern. Regression is likely, if not certain for Cabrera, but I'm far more concerned about BABIP than PEDs. Cabrera fashioned a .379 BABIP in 2012, an unsustainable figure (70 points above his career mark) that contributed heavily to his .346 batting average. </span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> But even if you are concerned that the spike in Cabrera's isolated power over the past two seasons is PED-charged, bear in mind that he's moving from the extremely pitcher-friendly environment of AT&T Park to the much more hitter-friendly Rogers Centre, a transition that could mitigate the concern that Melky's power will be zapped now that he's been caught. Over the past three seasons, the Concrete Convertible has produced 119 HRs for every 100 homeruns, <a href="http://www.parkfactors.com/TOR" target="_blank">according to ParkFactors.com</a>. That's gotta be encouraging. Furthermore, Melky has great bat-to-ball skills, striking out in just 12.1% of his career plate appearances, and provides value on the basepaths. He's averaged about 17 steals per season over the past two years. I'm very optimistic about Melky's 2013 prospects, and it'll be nice to have some stability in left field after several years of flux, but we're comparing him to the "<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cxl1tFe4EEs" target="_blank">Greatest of All Time.</a>" Sorry, Melkman.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Winner: Henderson. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b>Roberto Alomar vs. Emilio Bonifacio</b></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I mean no disrespect to Emilio Bonifacio — I believe his versatility and speed will prove immensely useful; there's even rumour of him platooning with Rasmus in centrefield -- but this is tantamount to comparing your first love to some girl you just met at the bar. Alomar, whose Cooperstown plaque depicts him sporting a Blue Jays cap, enjoyed another superb season in 1993, producing a .398 wOBA to lead all second basemen. While his numbers have have been slightly dwarfed by the ridiculous feats accomplished by his teammates, Alomar presence at the top of the lineup contributed significantly to their RBI totals. In 1993, his age 25-season, Alomar posted a .408 OBP, walking 11.7% of the time and picking up 192 hits, sixth-most in baseball. His 55 stolen bases represented the third most in baseball (tied with Luis Polonia), while he eclipsed single digits in homeruns for the first time in his career, knocking 17 round-trippers. Each of his big-3 rate stats that year -- .326/.408/.492 -- would stand as personal bests as a Blue Jay. Ultimately, Alomar was worth 5.7 wins above replacement in 1993, and that's with defensive metrics costing him nearly a full win. He won the Gold Glove anyway, for the record, if you're into that sort of thing. And even if you're not, </span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Alomar's tenure in Toronto was magical, and 1993 was his magnum opus.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The acquisition of Emilio Bonifacio was largely overshadowed by the other Marlins included in November's uber-deal, a reality further compounded by the eventual arrival of R.A. Dickey. But, as stated above, I believe Bonifacio's presence on the 25-man will afford manager John Gibbons lots of flexibility when it comes to crafting his lineup and making tactical decisions late in games. That said, he's a utility guy — a valuable one, to be sure — but a utility guy when it comes down to it. As such, speed remains one of central attributes; he stole 30 bases in just 64 contests last year while producing</span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> 6.1 BsR, a counting-stat metric that translates skills on the basepaths (excluding stolen bases) into runs, with 0 representing league average. The latter figure, good for 16th in baseball, is particularly impressive considering how few games Boni played last season. Nobody in the top 15 appeared in fewer than 100 games. But outside of that, none of his abilities jump out at you. With a career .329 OBP, </span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">a number derived from a high BABI</span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">P, I suppose he's a touch above-average when it comes to avoiding outs. Of course, what that really means is hitting singles — his </span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">walk rate routinely hovers around league average and he has zero power; only five players with at least 250 PAs in 2012 produced a lower ISO than Boni's .057. So yeah, versatility will make Bonifacio a defensive nomad in 2013, as he'll play all over the diamond while providing a nice late-inning option to pinch run. There's really no point trying to contrive a comparison between his prospects for 2013 and Alomar's ridiculous 1993 campaign. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Winner: Alomar</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b>Duane Ward vs. Casey Janssen</b></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">When I was maybe 12 years old, I ran into Duane Ward at a Toronto Raptors game (I know, I know) and, after asking him for an autograph, commended him on his 43 saves in 1993. An older, more corpulent Ward politely reminded me that he had, in fact, collected 45 saves that season. Following the departure of Tom Henke, Ward assumed closing duties in 1993 and was just as dominant as his predecessor. In what proved to be his last successful season in baseball — arm trouble ended his career prematurely; he was out of baseball at 31 — Ward converted 88% of his saves opportunities, leading all relievers with a ridiculous 12.18 K/9, a ratio that bespeaks the unparalleled nastiness of his slider, or so my father says. His 2.13 ERA (2.10 FIP) ranked sixth among relievers, to go along with a 1.03 WHIP, a career best. After all, it's kind of tough to allow baserunners when you strike out roughly 35% of the batters you face. Incidentally, opposing hitters compiled a meagre .191 batting average off Wardo in 1993. What else can I say? He was real good.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Janssen, our favourite drop-and-drive practitioner, found himself thrust into the closer role in 2012 after newly acquired Sergio Santos hit the DL just six games into the regular season. Despite the absence of a true out pitch or stuff that really incites tumescence, Janssen thrived in the ninth inning, picking up 22 saves in 25 chances (88%, whaddayaknow?) and fashioning a sub-3.00 ERA for a second consecutive season. 2012 saw Janssen whittle his walk rate down to 1.55/9, a career best, while striking out 27.7% of opposing hitters, also a career benchmark. Same goes for his 9.5% swinging strike rate. That said, he did outperform his peripherals a little in 2012, with a half-run discrepancy between his ERA (2.54) </span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">and FIP (3.08), so a little regression this year isn't unreasonable. Furthermore, recovery from offseason surgery has <a href="http://sports.nationalpost.com/2013/03/23/blue-jays-john-gibbons-expects-casey-janssen-to-be-ready-for-opening-night-janssen-not-so-sure/" target="_blank">muddled his prospects of being ready for Opening Day</a>, and with Santos looking to reclaim the closer role (and Steve Delabar a potential ninth-inning option, too), the odds of Janssen holding onto the job for the entirety of 2013 seems a little improbable — not that the Save really matters, or anything. Regardless, it's likely that Janssen doesn't enjoy as much success in 2013, with his strikeout rates, walk rates, and left-on-base percentage regressing closer to his career marks. Considering this confluence of factors, it seems unlikely he's as dominant as Wardo.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Winner: Ward</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i>Following today's sweep by the 1993 club, the series score currently stands at 4-1 for Cito's gang.</i></span>Jonah Birenbaumhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17710512915345313836noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8950768613470322430.post-80821894155459000812013-03-28T12:28:00.002-07:002013-03-28T13:37:03.113-07:00Back To The Future: 1993 vs. 2013, Part 1<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">It seems like a natural impulse to want to liken the 2013 Toronto Blue Jays to the 1993 incarnation of the club, a roster highlighted by names firmly ensconced into Toronto's sports hagiography. I mean, look at all the similarities. They're good; Dominican players abound; The year ends in "3." Okay, sure. But beyond these superficial parallels, how much does this this year's club really smell like the last group of Jays to hoist the Commissioner's Trophy?</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />Yesterday, CBC Sports published <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/sports/baseball/mlb/story/2013/03/27/sp-mlb-infographic-blue-jays-2013-vs-1992-comparison.html" target="_blank">a piece providing a position-by-position comparison of the two respective Jays club</a>, contrasting the performance of the 1993 players with the 2012 numbers from each of Toronto's putative 2013 starters. In this series, we'll take a look at how the two teams stack up, because why not?</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /><b>Catcher: Pat Borders vs. J.P. Arencibia</b></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I suspect that Pat Borders' MVP performance in the 1992 World Series leaves most Jays fans with little but saccharine memories of the backstop. And that's ok. But it does little to mitigate the fact that he was a below-replacement level player in 1993. In his age-30 season, which proved to be his final year as an everyday player, Borders posted a .254/.285/.371 line, belting nine homeruns in 520 plate appearances. Walking in just 3.8% of his PAs, Borders' .285 OBP in 1993 represented his third consecutive campaign in which he reached base less than 30% of the time. His .290 wOBA ranked second-last among the nine catchers to qualify for the batting title -- he finished .001 points ahead of Cincinnati's Joe Oliver -- while recording the lowest isolated power among that group, at .117. Borders also committed 13 errors behind the plate that year, a career-high, while throwing out just 33% of prospective base-stealers, a figure three percent below the league average that year.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">As deficient as Arencibia is in so many facets of the game (see: on-base ability, defense, running), his prospects for 2013 still seem brighter than Borders' 1993 campaign. Despite missing nearly a third of 2012 due to a fractured hand, Arencibia still managed to be worth 1.2 wins above replacement, hitting for the requisite power while making strides in his defensive game. His .202 ISO (read: meal ticket) ranked seventh among the 25 catchers with at least 350 PAs in 2012 -- Josh Thole ranked dead last, by-the-by. And if we cherry-pick a little with our endpoints, Arencibia compiled a .294/.324/.676 over his final 22 games before hitting the disabled list, pumping seven homeruns over that span -- do with that info what you will. But even more encouraging is the progress Arencibia made in his defensive game. 2012 saw Arencibia post above-average numbers in both Defensive Runs Saved (3) and RPP (1.9), a metric that measures a catcher's ability to block piches in the dirt translated into runs, with 0 representing league average. He's still going to strike out a ton (career 28.2 K%) a propensity that's going to hurt his ability to reach base, but with just moderate improvements in that area and continued defensive development, he could approximate a 2-win player in 2013.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Winner: Arencibia<br /><b><br /></b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b>First base: John Olerud vs. Adam Lind</b><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In September, I wrote a piece examining Colby Rasmus' disastrous second-half to the 2012 season, wherein I contended that Johnny O "possessed arguably the sweetest lefty swing in the history of the Blue Jays." Nobody on the Blue Jays' roster did anything in the last month of the season to change my mind. Olerud's smooth swing was operating at full capacity in 1993, when he was the best hitter in baseball not named Barry Bonds. Olerud, then 24 (24!), led the league with a .363 batting average while recording a ridiculous .473 on-base percentage, walking in 16.8% of his trips of the plate; a .375 BABIP -- good for fourth among qualified hitters -- didn't hurt. And his gaudy batting average wasn't empty, either. Olerud's .236 ISO placed him fifth among qualified first basemen, topped only by behemoths like Frank Thomas (hey, Frank Thomas!) and Rafy Palmeiro, Fred McGriff, and Mickey Tettleton. The svelte infielder's 24 homeruns in 1993 represent a career high. Hell, pretty much everything for Olerud in 1993 was a career high. He was also worth 4 Fielding Runs Above Average and hit .291/.413/.424 against lefties. Cream.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Oh, Adam Lind. The much maligned (and deservedly maligned) first baseman/designated hitter has seen his strock drop mightily over the past three seasons. By now, you're surely familiar with the narrative. He won the 2009 Silver Slugger award and has been terrible since. Over the past three season, Lind's struggles against lefthanded pitching have become increasingly pronounced, to the point where they're almost <a href="http://o.canada.com/2013/02/19/the-2013-blue-jays-season-as-a-retro-video-game/" target="_blank">comical</a>. Since 2010, he has a .186/.226/.281 line against southpaws over 390 plate appearances. His struggles culminated in a demotion to Triple A Las Vegas last year, and he did show some signs of life upon his return; over his final 59 games, he posted an OPS north of .800 while holding his own against the lefties. But if we look at this through a sober lens, Lind hasn't been better than a replacement level player in two of the past thee years, and, at this point, a platoon (Rajai? DeRosa?) represents the more sensible scenario. Lind's prospects of outperforming Olerud's 1993 are about as likely as Mike Trout leading the Angels' rotation in wins in 2013. At this point, if Lind can prove a serviceable platoon partner at 1B/DH while continuing to mash righthanded pitching, I'd be satisfied.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Winner: Olerud. Olerud also comes in second.<br /><i><br /></i></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i>The series will continue tomorrow with a look at left field and closer, and maybe some others if I'm not feeling lazy.</i></span><br />
<br />Jonah Birenbaumhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17710512915345313836noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8950768613470322430.post-35205630196866845692013-01-09T16:49:00.001-08:002013-01-09T21:42:28.692-08:00Today in People You Probably Aren’t Talking About: Shawn Green<br />
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It’s quite fitting that Shawn Green’s first year of Hall of Fame eligibility coincided with a veritable poop-storm of rancorous Twitterbrawling and controversy over performance-enhancing drugs that allowed his candidacy to go virtually unnoticed. The svelte outfielder played the bulk of his career during the nadir of the steroid era, when men the size of tractor-trailers abounded in Major League Baseball. So flying under the radar is kind of a recurring theme for him.</div>
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<span class="s1">When the ballots were finally tallied and the results revealed -- spoiler: nobody with a pulse got the requisite 75% -- Green received precisely two votes from the 569 chartered members of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America. And it makes sense. By no stretch of the imagination does Green deserve to be enshrined in Cooperstown among the pantheon of baseball legends. Like countless others, he was a really, really good player who wasn’t quite good enough for the Hall of Fame. According to Jay Jaffe’s proprietary system, Green’s 30.4 JAWS ranks 60th all-time among right fielders, and well below the threshold of those already inducted at the position.</span></div>
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<span class="s1">Since news of the collective snubbery broke, Twitter has erupted with throngs of people calling for election reform, lambasting anyone who didn’t vote for Craig Biggio, and engaging in sanctimonious nose-thumbing (or is it thumb-nosing?). But I’m above all that*. Instead of participating in the virtual pissing-contest, I’m going to take advantage of an opportunity to craft a concise, sentimental tribute to Green, a player who had the misfortune of playing against a backdrop of steroids that effectively dwarfed his career numbers -- numbers that would elicit a heck of a lot of giddiness these days.</span></div>
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<span class="s1">*<i>Note: I am, in no way, above all that.</i></span></div>
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<span class="s1">Disclaimer: I’m going to use arbitrary endpoints and pick the stats I like because, darn it, Shawn Green deserves some love from someone!</span></div>
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<li class="li1"><span class="s1">Over 15 major league seasons, Green -- the most accomplished Jewish batsmen since Hank Greenberg -- compiled 42.1 WARP, an impressive figure fueled by 328 homeruns and a .290 True Average. </span></li>
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<li class="li1"><span class="s1">From 1999-2002, Green slugged 157 homeruns, which accounted for the eighth-most over that span. When you consider that five of the seven players who precede him on that list (Sammy Sosa, Barry Bonds, Alex Rodriguez, Rafael Palmeiro, and Jeff Bagwell) have all either tested positive, admitted to, or been heavily implicated for using performance-enhancing drugs, Green’s power numbers assume even more weight. </span></li>
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<li class="li1"><span class="s1">Green is one of just 16 players to <a href="http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=20087361&c_id=mlb" target="_blank"><span style="color: blue;">hit four homeruns in one game</span></a>, accomplishing the feat on May 23, 2002 as his Los Angeles Dodgers trounced the Milwaukee Brewers 16-3. Oh, he also added a single and a double to set the major league record for total bases in a game, with 19.</span></li>
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<li class="li1"><span class="s1">Green collected exactly 2,003 career base hits. The movie <i>Old School </i>was released in 2003, and that’s a <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mCnZqg1RgGA" target="_blank"><span style="color: blue;">kick-ass movie</span></a>.</span></li>
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<li class="li1"><span class="s1">In 1998, as a member of the Toronto Blue Jays, Green hit 35 homeruns and stole 35 bases, making him one of the 38 members of the illustrious 30-30 club.</span></li>
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<li class="li1"><span class="s1">From 1995-2005, Green was <span style="color: blue;"><a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=6500&type=8&season=2005&month=0&season1=1995&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=14,53&filter=3999&players=0" target="_blank"><span style="color: blue;">one of just ten players</span></a> </span>with at least 6,500 plate appearances who posted an on-base percentage above .350 and an isolated power greater than .200. Other names on that list include: Alex Rodriguez, Jeff Bagwell, Chipper Jones, Manny Ramirez, Sammy Sosa, Gary Sheffield, Jeff Kent, Luis Gonzalez, and Rafael Palmeiro.</span></li>
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<li class="li1"><span class="s1">Over 53 career postseason plate appearances, Green had a .900 OPS.</span></li>
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<li class="li1"><span class="s1">Green was featured on the cover of <i>MLB 2004</i>, making him the last Los Angeles Dodger to grace a video game cover. Suck it, Matt Kemp.</span></li>
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<li class="li1"><span class="s1">Over 1,951 career games, Green had just one stint on the disabled list, when he fractured the first metatarsal in his right foot back in 2007. Wimp. </span></li>
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<span class="s1">Green will not appear on any subsequent Hall of Fame ballots as he did not receive the mandatory 5% in this year’s election. In that case, I guess this serves as something of a eulogy to one of the steroid era’s more unheralded stars (at least, outside of Toronto). </span></div>
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<span class="s1">And while I don’t agree with Chris’s assessment, I applaud his ardor:</span><br />
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It's bullshit Shawn Green isn't in the <a href="https://twitter.com/search/%23Baseball">#Baseball</a> HOF<br />
— Chris Macias (@ChrisM_Photos) <a data-datetime="2013-01-09T22:32:01+00:00" href="https://twitter.com/ChrisM_Photos/status/289137480144412675">January 9, 2013</a></blockquote>
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Jonah Birenbaumhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17710512915345313836noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8950768613470322430.post-56642734726933553982012-11-30T10:27:00.002-08:002012-11-30T10:31:38.176-08:00I Want Youk to Want Me<div>
Patience was not a virtue exemplified by many Blue Jays hitters in 2012. Consequently, the team's collective .309 OBP ranked 25th in baseball last season.</div>
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Only three of Toronto's regular starters -- Edwin Encarnacion (.384), Jose Bautista (.358), and Brett Lawrie (.324) -- registered on-base percentages above the arbitrary .315 mark.</div>
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And no player on the roster embodies Toronto's lacklustre plate approach better than Adam Lind; over the past three seasons, Lind has compiled an OBP of .296. And as horrifying as that number is, it gets a whole lot worse when we isolate the splits.</div>
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Lind's struggles against left-handed pitching are well documented. Since his astonishing 2009 campaign in which he slugged 35 homeruns with a .932 OPS en route to a Silver Slugger award, Lind has proven himself to be little more than a glorified platoon player. In the three subsequent seasons -- and brace yourself because this is ugly -- he's posted a slash line of .186/.226/.281 against southpaws in 390 plate appearances. In case the putrid stench of those numbers has incapacitated your mathematical faculties, that's good for a .507 OPS. </div>
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Since 2010, Lind has struck out in 26.9% of his plate appearances against lefties, compared to 18.5% against righthanders. And it goes on like this for a while: </div>
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<li>7.4 BB% vs. RHP -- 4.1 BB% vs. LHP;</li>
<li>.340 wOBA vs. RHP -- .225 wOBA vs. LHP;</li>
<li>.212 ISO vs. RHP -- .096 ISO vs. LHP;</li>
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You get the picture.</div>
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If only there was a capable, disciplined, goateed right-handed bat available that could split time with Lind whenever a lefty toes the slab. And a shaved head is preferable.</div>
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Given that broad description, the first candidate that comes to mind is Kevin Youkilis.</div>
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Blue Jays fans will surely remember Youk from his time with the Boston Red Sox. In fact, throughout his nine-year career, Youkilis has played more games against the Blue Jays than any other team in baseball. Over 111 tilts with the Blue Jays, Youkilis knocked 16 homeruns with a .372 OBP and .834 OPS. While those figures pale slightly in comparison to his career totals -- .384 and .867, respectively -- they're not anything to sneeze at.</div>
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Renowned for his impeccable approach and plate discipline, the longtime Fenway favourite earned the moniker "The Greek God of Walks," and it's a nickname that's certainly deserved. His .413 OBP in 2009 ranked sixth in the bigs, while his .411 mark in 2010 would've put him in a tie for fourth had injuries not prevented him from reaching the requisite 501 plate appearances.</div>
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As he's crept closer to his dotage, his numbers have taken a dip, but he still managed a .355 OBP with a .347 wOBA over the past two seasons. But since we're really only interested in him as a platoon player, his numbers against lefties are really what we're after. To put it succinctly: they're good.</div>
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Over the past two seasons with the Red/White Sox, Youkilis has worked a tasty .407 OBP with a .935 OPS against lefties. To get some perspective, Edwin Encarnacion's OPS last year was .941. Youkilis' .386 OBP against southpaws last year was exactly 70 points higher than his clip against righties. And of his 19 homeruns in 2012, eight of them came off lefthanders. Bear in mind, of course, those eight bombs came over 120 at-bats, while his other 11 took him 318 ABs. </div>
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Youkilis is no slouch with the glove, either. Over his career, he's split time between the corner infield positions, but a platoon with Lind would see him get regular reps at first-base, a far less demanding position. For his career, he's been worth 7.3 UZR/150 at first base.</div>
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Of course, convincing Youk to embrace a platoon role is a significant hurdle, but considering the way he's regressed over the past couple seasons, and his extensive injury history, he might be more receptive to the idea, especially if the Blue Jays are prepared to offer him two guaranteed years with a club option, for kicks.</div>
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And while some fans -- presumably the same ones who boo Derek Jeter for breathing -- might be reluctant to embrace a man who spent the prime of his career as a thorn in the side of Toronto pitchers, the notion of Adam Lind in an everyday role is far more objectionable.</div>
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And with that, let me conclude by saying,<i> "Take that, Mel Gibson."</i></div>
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Jonah Birenbaumhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17710512915345313836noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8950768613470322430.post-80729688946258843772012-11-21T12:11:00.003-08:002012-11-21T17:13:31.318-08:00Happ-iness is a Warm Arm<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In a sport of failure like baseball, success can be so transient that we form conceptions of certain players without considering the sample size or the circumstances. These conceptions can be hard to shake.</span><br />
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This is probably the best way to describe my relationship with J.A. Happ.</span><br />
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When Happ was acquired last July in a 10-player swap with the Houston Astros, I kept deluding myself into thinking we'd acquired the 2008 iteration of the southpaw rather than the contemporary version. Over the past three seasons, Happ, who was aggressively pursued by Alex Anthopoulos as he endeavoured to trade Roy Halladay, has in no way resembled the Philadelphia incarnation of himself -- the guy who worked a 3.05 ERA over 43 appearances (27 starts) for the Phillies between 2008 and 2009.</span><br />
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His career in Houston started off rather auspiciously -- he posted a 3.75 ERA in 13 starts for the Astros following a mid-season trade in 2010 -- but his hitability and homerun rates soared when 2011 came around, and Happ has yet to justify my lingering perception of him as a serviceable starter.</span><br />
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But despite the disastrous turn his career took in the Lone Star state, Happ took to vindicating me (and the handful of other J.A. enthusiasts) when he arrived north of the border last season.</span><br />
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In 10 starts for Toronto, Happ fashioned a 4.69 ERA that belied an impressive 2.80 FIP. Though he threw just 40.1 inning as a Blue Jay, he accrued a greater fWAR (1.1) than Ricky Romero, Henderson Alvarez, and Carlos Villanueva, all of whom threw more than 125 innings. And he did it all despite surrendering the highest BABIP (.315) of his career.</span><br />
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The sexy FIP suggests Happ was unlucky during his brief stint with Toronto, and his ERA was likely inflated by poor defense. This is entirely plausible when we look at who surrounded him, including Rajai Davis (-6.8 UZR) and the pylonic Kelly Johnson (-6.9 UZR).</span><br />
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In his first tour around the American League -- albeit, an abbreviated one -- Happ flashed swing-and-miss stuff with unprecedented regularity, at a clip of %12.2; while his sample was considerably smaller, that figure is more than three per cent higher than Brandon Morrow's in 2012.</span><br />
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Of course, there is something to be said for the fact that pitchers typically have an advantage over hitters in their first confrontation. Russell Carleton, now of Baseball Prospectus, was actually able to <a href="http://statspeakmvn.wordpress.com/2008/11/24/ah_so_we_meet_again/">quantify the advantage</a>, determining that "in the first meeting ... <span style="background-color: white; line-height: 20px;">the pitcher had a 7 point advantage in OBP" and "by the time of the second meeting, that advantage was almost entirely gone (down to 1.5 points)." So it's reasonable to presume that Happ encounters a little more adversity as AL teams become more familiar with his repertoire, but even still, he probably represents a better option than the low-tier arms available on the free agent market.</span></span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; line-height: 20px;">For the sake of this argument, we'll consider any free agent who made at least 20 starts in 2012 -- I doubt the Blue Jays opt for a true reclamation project to fill the final rotation spot -- and isn't one of the pitchers who will command a multi-year deal. This excludes the likes of Zack Greinke, Brandon McCarthy, Dan Haren, Ryan Dempster, Anibal Sanchez, Shaun Marcum, Kyle Lohse, and Anibal Sanchez. </span></span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; line-height: 20px;">So who's left to compete with Happ for the fifth rotation spot? In alphabetical order...</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white; line-height: 20px;"><br /></span><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="text-align: left;"><b>Erik Bedard (34)</b></span> - Compiled an 5.01 ERA over 24 starts with the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2012, with a FIP that didn't trail too far behind at 4.07. Bedard hasn't made more than 24 starts in a season since 2007, and has had two shoulder surgeries in the past four years. Oh yeah, and he's a Tommy John survivor. While he'd likely come cheap, when considering both performance and durability, he inspires about as much confidence as Eric Thames in left field.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="text-align: left;"><b>Joe Blanton (32)</b></span> - Despite an underwhelming fastball that sits around 89-90 mph, Blanton has a deep arsenal and good command, averaging 1.9 BB/9 since 2010. But that's about it. His propensity for surrendering homeruns isn't encouraging -- his 1.37 HR/9 in 2012 ranked 11th-worst among qualified pitchers -- nor is his 23.4% line-drive rate, ninth-worst in baseball. But his DL history is merely a fraction of Bedard's; he stays healthy and guiled his way to 2.4 fWAR last season. He could conceivably work out of the bullpen and serve as a contingency No. 5 should Happ falter.</span></span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="text-align: left;"><b>Kevin Correia (32)</b></span> - Just about the only thing Kevin Correia does well is induce ground balls; his 51.2 GB% in 2012 ranked eighth in the National League. But look at his appalling strikeout numbers -- 4.6 K/9 over the past two seasons and a microscopic swing-and-miss rate -- and his good control, Correia seems like an older, more tired version of Henderson Alvarez. Since 2010, Correia has been worth 0.9 fWAR. Yeesh.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="text-align: left;"><b>Scott Feldman (29)</b></span> - Feldman is coming off a rough 2012 in which he found himself parading back and forth from rotation to bullpen. As a starter, he compiled a record of 5-11 with an 5.48 ERA and 1.44 WHIP over 21 outings. But his 3.88 FIP and relatively high BABIP suggest he was a tad unlucky last season. At only 29 years old, Feldman could be a decent option if the price is right.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="text-align: left;"><b>Jeff Francis (32)</b></span> - Since 2008, Francis had whittled an ERA below five in just one season. That was back in 2011, his lone season not pitching half his games in the hitter's haven that is Coors Field. Nevertheless, Francis has been worth 4.4 fWAR over the past two season, despite the mitigating impact of the Mile High altitude last year. His HR/9 and BABIP will surely regress towards the mean outside of Colorado, and his low strikeout rates notwithstanding, Francis is an okay option for the No. 5 spot.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="text-align: left;"><b>Francisco Liriano (29) </b></span>- One of the more intriguing (read: exasperating) options on the free agent market, Liriano's stuff and pedigree have been lauded to death. Unfortunately, there's been a massive disconnect between his reputation and his performance over the past two years. His consistently high strikeouts rates are sexy -- 9.0 K/9 over the past three seasons -- but his command has been downright deplorable for the past two years, at 5.0 BB/9. He can also usually be relied on for at least one DL stint per season. Nevertheless, I'm a sucker for electric stuff, and his fastball-slider combination certainly fits that description. I wouldn't mind giving him an audition, for the right price.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="text-align: left;"><b>Derek Lowe (40)</b></span> - 2012 marked the first season since 2002 that Lowe didn't make at least 32 starts. There's a simple explanation for that: he's kinda bad. His 1.1 fWAR last year marked the lowest score of his career, and his 3.47 K/9 is absolutely laughable. And he's 40. And, from what I've heard/read, kind of a jerk. Pass.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="text-align: left;"><b>Jason Marquis (34)</b></span> - Yeah, he's a seasoned ground-ball specialist, but like Correia, that's about all he's got going for him. His 1.62 HR/9 last year ranked sixth-worst among pitchers with at least 120 innings, and, when coupled with mediocre command (3.43 career BB/9), it makes for a dangerous combination. Since 2010, he's only been better than the average replacement-level player once.</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="text-align: left;"><b>Kevin Millwood (38)</b></span> - The well-traveled righty was worth 2.0 fWAR last season, but don't let that fool you. Pitching in the cavernous Safeco Field, Millwood fashioned his lowest home-run rate since 2002, a factor which surely contributed to his rather surprising success. He can induce ground balls pretty well, and he's got alright command, but there's literally not a single thing about Millwood that I can use a really positive adjective for.</span></span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; text-align: left;"><b>Joe Saunders (32)</b> - If you're a fan of poo-throwing lefties -- and, presumably, you are now that Mark Buehrle's a Blue Jay -- Saunders is the guy for you. He'll eat innings and wow you with precisely nothing. He doesn't really strike guys out, he throws a ton of strikes, and he'll give up his fair share of homeruns. But he's made at least 28 starts every year since 2008 and has never had his ERA eclipse 4.60 over that span. In fact, he's managed two years of a sub-3.70 ERA out of his last five. He could work, but I suspect someone desperate will give him a multi-year deal.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="text-align: left;"><b>Randy Wolf (36)</b></span> - Break out the Duran Duran references. Wolf is another soft-throwing southpaw who has made a career out of staying healthy and throwing strikes. That being said, he's 36 years old and coming off the worst year of his career, in which he fashioned a 5.65 ERA over 30 appearances (26 starts). I wouldn't touch his climbing homerun rates or 68 mph curveball with a ten-foot clown pole.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="text-align: left;"><b>Chris Young (34) </b></span>- A righty who throws like a lefty, Young's fastball has averaged under 85 mph for the past three seasons. While his 2.82 BB/9 represents his lowest mark since 2005, his astronomic fly ball rate won't play well at the hitter-friendly Skydome. Considering his age and injury history, Young doesn't really seem like a viable option.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="text-align: left;"><b>Carlos Zambrano (32)</b></span> - RAWR! CARLOS ZAMBRANO! MLB's preeminent emotional volcano has made a reputation based more on his Incredible Hulk-like implosions than performance. Once a respectable cog in the Cubs rotation, Zambrano's taken a step backward the past couple seasons, and was relegated to the bullpen in 2012. Since 2011, he's compiled an 4.66 ERA with an abysmal 1.47 WHIP. Considering the way he's trending and his volatility, I'll pass.</span></span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; text-align: left;">Not included in this list: Dallas Braden, Freddy Garcia, Rich Harden (please, no), Roberto Hernandez, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Dustin Moseley, Roy Oswalt, Carl Pavano, Andy Pettitte, Jonathan Sanchez, Tim Stauffer, Carlos Villanueva, Chien-Ming Wang, Kip Wells, Randy Wells.</span></span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="text-align: left;">Look, some of these guys might have more success in 2013 than Happ, but I'm far too attached to my pre-enlightenment 2008-2009 conception of J.A. to give up on him now.</span></span></span><br />
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<br />Jonah Birenbaumhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17710512915345313836noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8950768613470322430.post-14042384921383972132012-11-14T07:29:00.001-08:002012-11-14T19:30:18.486-08:00The Day That Everything ChangedThere I was lamenting another mundane Tuesday night. <br />
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And then the Blue Jays pulled off the biggest trade in the history of the franchise. </div>
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With his credibility in a precarious state with the Toronto fan base, Blue Jays general manager Alex Anthopoulos silenced his critics by striking a deal with the Miami Marlins that'll see Josh Johnson, Mark Buehrle, Jose Reyes, Emilio Bonifacio, and John Buck come to Toronto in exchange for Yunel Escobar, Henderson Alvarez, and prospects Adeiny Hechavarria, Justin Nicolino, Jake Marisnick, and Anthony DeSclafani.</div>
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Sometimes it's hard to recognize truly seminal moments when they first occur. I'm sure nobody anticipated how profound an impact the Mike Sirotka trade would have when it was first consummated.</div>
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Sometimes, however, it's not. This is one of those moments.</div>
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In a move that makes the Alomar-Carter swap look virtually insignificant, the Blue Jays just executed a truly seismic deal that drastically changes the complexion of the franchise. In one evening, Toronto added upwards of $150M to its payroll while parting with a veritable army of youthful assets, many of them highly esteemed prospects. A number of pundits have suggested that this deal puts Toronto in a position to compete for a playoff spot in 2013.<br />
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Though the deal has yet to receive approval from Major League Baseball, we might as well dive right in and get the analytical juices flowing. Here goes nothing.</div>
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<b>What we got:</b></div>
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1. <b>Josh Johnson - RHP; 28 years old; Career ERA: 3.15; Career W-L: 56-37</b></div>
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An ace-calibre pitcher, Johnson immediately becomes the best hurler in Toronto's previously beleaguered rotation. Armed with a devastating slider and a fastball that sits around 93 mph, Johnson can blow you away with swing-and-miss stuff; his 9.2% swinging-strike rate in 2012 ranks above that of Zack Greinke, David Price, and Madison Bumgarner. Though he's only made 68 starts since 2010 -- he's battled arm issues throughout his career -- Johnson can be dominant when healthy, and has a 2.87 ERA over that span, averaging 8.4 K/9 with an impressive 1.17 WHIP. </div>
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2. <b>Mark Buehrle - LHP; 33 years old; Career ERA: 3.82; Career W-L: 174-132</b></div>
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There really are no surprises with Buehrle. He's going to make 30 starts. He's going to throw 200 innings. He's going to keep you in games with impeccable command (career 2.03 BB/9) and by mixing his pitches effectively. And if he manages to sneak a fastball by you -- his heater averaged 85 mph in 2012-- you need to reevaluate your career choice. Nevertheless, Buehrle remains one of baseball's most reliable workhorses, and the importance of his stabilizing presence in the rotation cannot be overstated.<br />
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3. <b>Jose Reyes - SS; 29 years old; Career slash: .291/.342/.440, 92 homeruns, 410 stolen bases</b><br />
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A four-time all-star, Reyes remains one of the most exciting up-the-middle players in the game. The 2011 NL batting champion represents Toronto's first legitimate leadoff hitter since Shannon Stewart. While he doesn't walk as much you might hope (career 7.1 BB%) his exceptional speed and impressive bat-to-ball skills keeps his OBP (and BABIP) high. He's a gamechanger on the basepaths, averaging 36 swipes a year since 2010. His defensive metrics suggest his fielding abilities have regressed a touch in recent years, but, to the best of my knowledge, he's never written an kind of discriminatory slur across his eyeblack.<br />
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<i>Addendum: One associate of mine dutifully noted that I omitted any reference to Reyes’ past injury troubles. However, I feel as though rumours of his fragility have been somewhat exaggerated. Since 2005, Reyes has played at least 126 games in all but one season. </i><br />
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4. <b>Emilio Bonifacio - UTIL; 27 years old; Career slash: .267/.329/.343, 110 stolen bases</b><br />
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A versatile speedster, Bonifacio can play a number of positions and is a pretty attractive candidate to hit in the nine-spot. Since 2011, he's stolen 70 bases in just 216 games and has played at least 100 innings at six different positions, including 2B and LF. Expect him to battle for playing time at 2B with newly acquired Maicer Izturis.<br />
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5. <b>John Buck - 32 years old; Career slash: .235/.303/.405, 118 homeruns</b><br />
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I'm reluctant to write anything about Buck because the catching situation in Toronto is so uncertain right now. But whatever. You probably remember Buck from his lone campaign in Toronto, when he smashed 20 homeruns with an .802 OPS. He's not that guy anymore. He's an older catcher whose offensive abilities have deteriorated considerably. He's fashioned a .667 OPS in his two seasons with the Marlins, posting a horrendous .192/.297/.347 slash line in 2012. We had to take him to complete this deal.<br />
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<b>What we gave up:</b><br />
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1. <b>Yunel Escobar - SS; 30 years old; Career slash: .282/.353/.390, 53 homeruns, 26 stolen bases</b><br />
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His fate effectively sealed by the now infamous eye-black fiasco, Escobar alienated himself from the Toronto fans in 2012 -- and surely evoked the ire of Toronto management -- with his embarrassing gaffe and disappointing performance on the field. A career .282 hitter, Escobar hit just .253 last season with an OBP of .300. His .wOBA was an abysmal .284, and his walk rate plummeted to 5.8% (career 8.9%). While nobody's ever passed up the opportunity to criticize Escobar's hustle, he still plays good defense at a premium position, and can be quite valuable offensively, his 2012 abberation notwithstanding. He's only a year removed from a 4.2 fWAR season.<br />
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2. <b>Henderson Alvarez - RHP; 22 years old; Career ERA: 4.52; Career W-L: 10-17</b><br />
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Alvarez really opened some eyes when he posted a 3.53 ERA over 10 starts in 2011. Unfortunately, his development didn't move in the right direction in 2012, as he posted a 4.85 ERA with a 1.44 WHIP over 32 starts. He lacks swing-and-miss stuff -- his 5.1% swinging-strike rate ranked last among qualified pitchers -- and was extremely susceptible to the homerun in 2012, averaging 1.39 HR/9. That said, he's got a lively fastball (though it can flatten out at times) and good command, averaging 2.22 BB/9 over his 41 career starts. If he can add another pitch to his repertoire, Alvarez could be a solid middle-of-the-rotation guy. And, let's remember, he's only 22 years old.<br />
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3. <b>Adeiny Hechavarria - SS; 23 years old; Career slash: .254/.280/.365 (41 games)</b><br />
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Listed as Toronto's eight-best prospect by Baseball America, Hechavarria is widely considered among the best defensive shortstop prospects in baseball, if not the best. There's little doubt that he will be an outstanding defensive major league shortstop in the near future. There is doubt, however, on the other side of the ball. Never lauded for his hit tool, Hechavarria projects to be "a bottom of the order hitter with the potential to steal 15+ bases and notch 20+ doubles with a low average and low OBP," according to <a href="http://baseballprospectnation.com/2012/02/08/2012-toronto-blue-jays-top-15-prospects/" target="_blank">BaseballProspectNation</a>.<br />
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4. <b>Jeff Mathis - C; 29 years old; Career slash: .198/.256/.314, 34 homeruns</b><br />
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Ne'er there was a person who so prominently exemplified the principles of backup catching. Mathis can't hit a lick -- his slash line speaks for itself -- but his catching abilities keep him in a job. His blocking and receiving are both excellent -- 5.7 FRAA over his last 164 games -- and he can manage a staff. On top of that, he threw out 41% of attempted base stealers in 2012, <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mathije01-field.shtml" target="_blank">according to Baseball-Reference.com</a>, more than 15% above the league average.<br />
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5. <b>Jake Marisnick - OF; 21 years old; Career slash: N/A</b><br />
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This one could hurt. Baseball America considers Marisnick Toronto's second best prospect, behind only Travis d'Arnaud. According to Kevin Goldstein, formerly of Baseball Prospectus, Marisnick is "a big, majestic athlete with above-average speed, excellent
hitting skills, and is just starting to tap into his power, which
projects as plus. He's a good center fielder, and his arm is a weapon." Marisnick put up impressive numbers with Low-A Lansing in 2011 -- 14 homeruns, .888 OPS in 118 games -- but struggled upon promotion in 2012. There are rumblings that his swing has been tinkered with a number of times and that it still needs work; Marisnick's holes were exposed in 2012, when he hit just .233 in 55 games with New Hampshire. Nevertheless, he still projects to be a future stud; Goldstein says he "could be a 20/20 center fielder, and that might be light."<br />
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6. <b>Justin Nicolino - LHP; 20 years old; Career ERA: N/A; Career W-L: N/A</b><br />
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One-third of the pitching prospect triumvirate known as the "Lansing 3," Nicolino is universally considered to have the lowest ceiling among the three. The Blue Jays' fifth best prospect according to Baseball America, Nicolino's "command/control give him a chance to develop into a No.
3 starter," says Fangraphs' Marc Hulet. Nicolino averaged 8.61 K/9 with 1.52 BB/9 in 124.1 innings for Lansing in 2012, en route to a 2.46 ERA. While it hurts to lose him, the Jays were fortunate not to part with Aaron Sanchez or Noah Syndergaard.<br />
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7. <b>Anthony DeSclafani - RHP; 22 years old; Career ERA: N/A; Career W-L: N/A</b><br />
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A former sixth-round pick, DeSclafani made his professional debut with Lansing in 2012, posting a 3.37 ERA and 1.83 BB/9. Admittedly, I know very little about this guy, so I'll defer to, well, the man himself. "<span style="color: black;">I currently have four pitches a fastball, curveball, changeup, and slider. My fastball can range anywhere from 90 to 95 mph,” DeSclafani told Brian Crawford of <a href="http://jaysprospects.com/2012/08/23/lansing-lugnuts-anthony-desclafani/">JaysProspects.com</a>. He is not considered among the pantheon of top Jays prospects.</span><br />
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<span style="color: black;">Well that took a lot out of me. I'm going to go have a nap or something. </span><br />
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Jonah Birenbaumhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17710512915345313836noreply@blogger.com9tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8950768613470322430.post-42930086554621065932012-09-17T15:29:00.000-07:002012-09-18T09:43:27.706-07:00What's Wrong With Colby Rasmus?<div>
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Remember that final instalment of the Lord of the Rings film trilogy? Viggo Mortensen and his ambiguous accent triumph over the armies of Mordor and Isengard while Frodo and Sam chuck that infernal ring into the fires of Mount Doom? </span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">And then the movie carried on for, like, another 35 minutes?</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">That's pretty much how I feel about the second half of Colby Rasmus's season. It refuses to die. </span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In 53 games since the all-star break, Rasmus has laboured his way to a slash line that would probably reduce Nick Punto to tears, hitting .185/.242/.295, with just five homeruns and nary a stolen base. This precipitous fall has whittled Rasmus's WAR down to a measly 1.3, good enough for dead last among qualified centre fielders.</span><br />
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">When he was acquired last July in a three-way deal with the Cardinals and White Sox, Rasmus quickly drew the ire of Toronto fans after hitting just .173 with three homeruns in his first 35 games as a Blue Jay, albeit while battling a wrist injury. However, the taciturn Georgia native had effectively silenced all those naysayers with an impressive first half to 2012 in which he hit .259/.328/.494 with 18 homeruns, of which 11 came between June 5 and July 8, when he fashioned an OPS of .977.</span><br />
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But since the midsummer classic, Rasmus has been but a sad, sporadically-cornrowed vestige of his former self. And in a season that's been derailed (or, more accurately, carpetbombed) by injury, Rasmus appeared to be one of the few bright spots in an increasingly beleaguered lineup.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Yes, he's been victimized by a relatively low BABIP (.266), and his numbers certainly belie the rate at which he makes hard contact -- his 20.1% line drive rate represents the highest mark of his career -- but the drop-off has simply been too great to attribute to rotten luck.</span><br />
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">So allow me to proffer a handful of theories as to why Colby has looked suspiciously similar to Brendan Ryan since mid-July.</span><br />
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">1. </span><b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">His plate discipline has eroded</span></b><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Never lauded for his discipline at the plate, Colby's aggressiveness (or rather, recklessness) at the plate has reached unprecedented levels since the all-star break. During the first half of the season, Rasmus would chase approximately one out of every four pitches (27%) he saw that was out of the strike zone, a marginal improvement over the league average of 30%. Since the all-star break, though, he's either lost his discipline or his sense of the strike zone, as his chase percentage has jumped to 36.7%. Consequently, his walk rate has dropped almost three clicks while his strikeout rate has ballooned by almost nine per cent. </span><br />
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I can live with the strikeouts. Hell, he struck out in more than 27% of his plate appearances back in 2010, when he compiled 4.3 wins above replacement as a member of the Cardinals. But in order for him to have consistent success, he'll have to improve his on-base abilities, especially considering that he's pretty much ensconced in the No. 2 spot in the lineup for the foreseeable future. His .295 OBP on the season in frighteningly Lind-ian.</span><br />
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">2. </span><b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">He's swinging and missing more </span></b><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">We all know how partial Rasmus is to offering at the first pitch. I even <a href="http://touchemalltoronto.blogspot.ca/2012/04/colby-be-hackin.html" target="_blank">blogged about it a couple months ago</a>, back when the sample sizes were far too small to say anything remotely conclusive. His 34% first-pitch swing rate is eight per cent higher than the MLB average, according to Baseball-Reference.com. The problem is, whereas in the first half he could take a vicious hack at 0-0 and still put together a productive at-bat, his bloated whiff rate since the all-star break seems to have thrown a wrench into his approach -- his 30.3% swing-and-miss rate in the second half represents a jump of more than eight per cent since the halcyon days of April-July 8.</span><br />
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Of course, there's a symbiosis between articles 1 and 2. He's swinging at pitches that aren't necessarily hittable (1), so he's swinging and missing more (2). And because he remains undeterred in his partiality for offering at the first pitch, he's routinely behind in the count, which makes (1) more likely, and thus (2) inevitable.</span><br />
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">3. </span><b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">He's gone from bad to worse against left-handed pitching</span></b><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I never got to see John Olerud in his prime. But from what I gather (and my father's testimony goes a long way in this regard), he possessed arguably the sweetest lefty swing in the history of the Blue Jays. He hit .270 against lefties.</span><br />
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">For many a left-handed hitter, southpaw pitching is fodder for nightmares. Colby Rasmus is no exception. And while he did enjoy moderate success against lefties in the first half of the year (.235/.327/.388), since the all-star break, he's become, for lack of a better word, anaphylactic. In 63 plate appearances against southpaw pitching since July 13, Rasmus is hitting a microscopic .119/.175/.186 with no homeruns and just one walk. He's also struck out in 21 of those 63 plate appearances. </span><br />
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Yeesh.</span><br />
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">If he didn't play centre field, people would likely be clamouring for a platoon. While he'll probably never enjoy abundant success against southpaws, I'd be more than content if he could, in 2013, replicate the .715 OPS he posted before the all-star break.</span><br />
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Having said all that, I appreciate that it's tough to play for a team comprised predominantly of AAA-talent that's destined for the golf course come October. And it's not unreasonable to think Rasmus's performance of late has been hampered by a groin injury that probably could've warranted a trip to the disabled list. </span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">It's also salient to note that since Brett Lawrie's return from a month-long DL stint on September 7, Rasmus has been red-hot, hitting .323 with an OPS of .888. But nevertheless, Rasmus's second-half decline has definitely raised some eyebrows, and that's coming from a card-carrying Rasmus Rooter.</span><br />
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Still two years away from free agency, Rasmus hasn't yet reached the proverbial crossroads of his career, but given the current state of this franchise, there's no doubt he regarded as a core piece.</span><br />
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 21px;"><i><b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Per Richard Griffin's </span></b></i><a href="http://www.thestar.com/sports/baseball/mlb/article/1253691--colby-rasmus-blue-jays-next-core-player-on-contract-radar-griffin" target="_blank"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: black;"><i><b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">column</span></b></i></span></a><i><b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">: </span></b></i></span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 21px;"><i><b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">“Yes, right now, for sure,” manager John Farrell said, when asked if Rasmus was key to the Jays’ future. “He’s got a chance to be an RBI guy. He’s got a chance to hit the ball out of the ballpark. When you look at his skills and his tools, he’s got as much talent as anybody in this league.</span></b></i></span><br />
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</span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 21px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I feel like my feelings towards Rasmus may have come off as ambivalent. This is my own fault. I like him. A lot. I just need to see more consistency from him in 2013 before anointing him a cornerstore piece.</span></span><br />
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</span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 21px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I can't think of a really clever way to cap this off. Frankly, I'm still fuming over the fact that the Patriots lost on Sunday, thereby eliminating me from my survivor pool.</span></span><br />
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</span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 21px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Damn Cardinals.</span></span><br />
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Jonah Birenbaumhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17710512915345313836noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8950768613470322430.post-38440624581245874872012-06-15T22:27:00.001-07:002012-06-15T22:35:46.436-07:00Dropping Like FliesAs far as I know, there is no vaccine for 'elbow damage'.<br />
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I mean, it's not like polio.<br />
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For professional baseball players, repetitive stress injuries like the ones that seem to have afflicted Kyle Drabek and Drew Hutchison are, quite simply, an occupational hazard. Especially for pitchers. </div>
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Dr. James Andrews is the most popular name is sports medicine for a reason, people. And the procedure that's surely become routine for him by this point, the dreaded Tommy John surgery, has increasingly become a rite of passage for pitchers.</div>
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For those of you who don't know, Tommy John surgery is a reconstruction -- or, more commonly, a replacement -- of the ulnar collateral ligament, with a recovery rate estimated at 85%. In 2003, roughly one in nine major league pitchers had been acquainted with Mr. John, according to a <i>USA Today </i>study. I don't have any data that's more recent, but I think it's reasonable to presume that rate has increased significantly.</div>
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Drabek's gone under the knife once, and, as Sportsnet's Mike Wilner suggested earlier today, he could very well do it again. It's premature to suggest that Hutchison is destined for the operating table, but the disconcerting way he massaged his forearm/elbow area this evening wasn't exactly promising.</div>
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Of course, all of this is compounded by the fact that Brandon Morrow was also lifted from his last outing due to an injury. He was subsequently placed on the 15-day DL with, officially, an oblique strain. This is an injury that's fairly common and rarely serious, but there's something very unsettling about the manner in which people -- especially Blue Jays media -- have been describing his current maladie.</div>
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It goes without saying that losing any-to-all of these pitchers for an extended period of time would effectively dash any delusions of contending for a playoff spot this year. But it'd be even more devastating if either Drabek or Hutch were forced to go under the knife. While great strides have been made with respect to TJ and its recovery process, it is not a guaranteed procedure, and younger subjects are particularly susceptible to recovery failures, according to Thomas Gorman of <i>Baseball Prospectus</i>. Doesn't exactly inspire hope for the 21-year-old Hutchison or 24-year-old Drabek, who, as mentioned above, has done this dance before. </div>
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I know I'm letting my imagination run away with me, but Drabek and Hutch <s>are</s> were considered to be two of the more prominent cornerstones of Toronto's rotation of the future. </div>
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We'll wait with baited breath for further news on these two.</div>
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For now, I'll keep working on that vaccine.</div>
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<br /></div>Jonah Birenbaumhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17710512915345313836noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8950768613470322430.post-36656308410492478042012-06-14T10:52:00.001-07:002012-06-17T21:37:23.012-07:00His Name is Brett LawrieThings are not well in Blue Jay land.<br />
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After Stephen Strasburg stymied Toronto's offense yesterday to cap off a forgettable series with the Nationals, the Jays have, for the first time this season, sojourned to the realm of the damned that is the sub-.500 club. <br />
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Well, maybe that metaphor is a little dramatic. The sub-.500 club is more like a party hosted by (and for) the socially inept kids, but the Jays were forced to attend because their mom insisted.<br />
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Painful memories aside, this increasingly beleaguered ballclub has encountered a number of difficulties in recent days. Over the past week, we've had two pitchers -- including burgeoning ace Brandon Morrow -- sustain injuries on the mound that precipitated early departures from their respective outings. <br />
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We've also seen a widely anticipated regression from nearly everyone in the lineup that isn't named Jose Bautista. Kelly Johnson has recorded just one extra-base hit since May 28. Yunel Escobar's efforts to raise his OPS above .700 remain unsuccessful. David Cooper doesn't have a hit in five games.<br />
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And Vlad abandoned us. You see where I'm going with this.<br />
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But in these trying times, we always have Brett Lawrie. Over just 102 career games, Lawrie has managed to attain a persona that transcends performance, an image that can be largely attributed to the indefatigable tire-pumping efforts of the Canadian sports media. His successes are lauded without restraint, while his shortcomings are tolerated with a kind of obligatory acquiescence.<br />
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So to get you through this rough patch, I've recorded a <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K4XXLTilKfU&feature=youtu.be" target="_blank">humorous little ditty about #13 </a>that may contain just trace amounts of satire. Enjoy.<br />
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<br />Jonah Birenbaumhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17710512915345313836noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8950768613470322430.post-35621316996200179852012-05-31T01:10:00.003-07:002012-05-31T09:23:59.655-07:00The Man in White 2 : Drop the Hammel DownI don't think it's unreasonable to suggest that the major league baseball community isn't exactly fond of the Toronto Blue Jays.<br />
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And I'm not sure I blame them.<br />
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I mean, look at this team. They're young. They're brash. They're Canadian, kinda.<br />
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Jose Bautista seethes with entitled contempt every time he takes a borderline pitch that doesn't go his way. Brett Lawrie has the temerity to run out -- or, more accurately, gallop out -- routine ground balls. Yunel Escobar plays the game with an air of casual indifference. Same goes for Colby Rasmus.<br />
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Based on purely superficial observation, this is not a particularly likeable group.<br />
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This increasingly ubiquitous distaste for the Blue Jays seemed to culminate last year when ESPN released a story -- propelled by the testimony of four anonymous major leaguers -- that accused the Jays of stealing opposing teams' signs, a nefarious scheme made possible by the efforts of a deviant known only as the Man in White.<br />
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Of course, none of the accusers could produce anything amounting to definitive evidence, and the story was essentially a smear piece with a credible masthead.<br />
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But the initial outrage that pervaded the Jays community soon subsided, and the story quickly morphed into a running gag that was lampooned by everyone from local sportscasters to the Toronto bullpen.<br />
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So when Baltimore starter Jason Hammel reignited the flames lit by that article after a poor outing against the Bluebirds on Wednesday night -- 6.2 IP, 4 ER, 9 H, 2 BB -- on one hand, it affirmed this notion that the Jays aren't well liked, and, on the other hand, reeked of a desperate attempt by a mediocre pitcher to deflect attention away from himself as his hot start continues to dissipate.<br />
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At the crux of Hammel's accusations was Toronto's aggressiveness on breaking pitches. The disgruntled hurler insisted that "you can't take swings like that, not knowing they're coming."<br />
But what's curious is that it wasn't the off-speed stuff that tickled the Jays' fancy tonight. All four homeruns surrendered by Hammel came on fastballs.<br />
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How 'bout that, Tonto?<br />
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Below are the Pitch F/X strikezone plots for the quartet of dingers Hammel served up tonight. <br />
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As you can see in this first table, it was an elevated fastball, middle-in, that Edwin Encarnacion smacked over the left-field fence in the second inning.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhe1cq7IppVJg_oZckSZO_-3a0N7zh1SzLK9LLgGg7Lpqxvh7-nhvrtDSxVliV2TPAWaWpv3Pm3FbIjr5qWsBHzu-6glJxHxi3ClRnaz4mzJ5fXdiqdnBxVXW-JwTMStxFA2h4HXdXo2qqH/s1600/Encarnacion1.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="265" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhe1cq7IppVJg_oZckSZO_-3a0N7zh1SzLK9LLgGg7Lpqxvh7-nhvrtDSxVliV2TPAWaWpv3Pm3FbIjr5qWsBHzu-6glJxHxi3ClRnaz4mzJ5fXdiqdnBxVXW-JwTMStxFA2h4HXdXo2qqH/s400/Encarnacion1.gif" width="400" /></a></div>
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An inning later, Rajai Davis took Hammel yard, also on an inside fastball. Hmmm...<br />
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Are we noticing a pattern yet? Anyone? Lawrie? Bueller?<br />
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And finally, the straw that broke the Hammel's back. In all fairness, this fastball that Colby Rasmus yanked out of the ballpark was not middle-in. It was just middle.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEheKPcJc6y2Ter0NwY1jSSAZFYiCTvxz2Va_Pa1hfG9n6WerLMF0CiUis2AePgCE-j9bXJoPBfsb847XF6Qz8K4J-5xC30yRdYz4VhDooCQc7icLA4aIZ6v-N-DlM0o3KEBY9GUJEwOMBBx/s1600/Rasmus1.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="266" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEheKPcJc6y2Ter0NwY1jSSAZFYiCTvxz2Va_Pa1hfG9n6WerLMF0CiUis2AePgCE-j9bXJoPBfsb847XF6Qz8K4J-5xC30yRdYz4VhDooCQc7icLA4aIZ6v-N-DlM0o3KEBY9GUJEwOMBBx/s400/Rasmus1.gif" width="400" /></a></div>
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So, Jason Hammel, it's safe to say that your accusations are as transparent as your fastballs are ineffective. I appreciate that this Toronto bunch can rub you the wrong way. Hell, if I rooted for any other team, I'd probably hate them, too. But to invoke this completely ludicrous rumour, knowing full well the gravity of those accusations, is simply unfair. It's unprofessional. It's juvenile. And it's probably part of the reason why your teamed has earned a moniker as unflattering as the Baltimore OrioLOLes.<br />
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Don't hate the player. Hate the game.Jonah Birenbaumhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17710512915345313836noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8950768613470322430.post-19043236436383170312012-05-25T01:36:00.000-07:002012-05-25T13:11:04.786-07:00Out of Left Field<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">A few months back I wrote a piece </span><a href="http://touchemalltoronto.blogspot.ca/2012/03/sigh-snider.html" target="_blank"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">commending Blue Jays management on its decision to bestow the left field job for 2012 upon Eric Thames</span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">, thereby condemning Travis Snider to yet another stint in baseball purgatory. </span><br />
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">More than a quarter of the way through the season, I think it's safe to say that I was wrong.</span><br />
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Eric Thames has not panned out. Unequivocally. Among qualified hitters, his -0.5 wins above replacement rating tops but a scant six other players -- interestingly enough, the slugger formerly known as Albert Pujols happens to be among that abysmal half-dozen. Given how Thames has performed this season, the statistic is actually a misnomer.</span><br />
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Admittedly, I have a strong prejudice against Eric Thames. Some people have insisted it's irrational, and, at times, I've agreed. But as the season has rolled on, my anti-Thames bias has become increasingly empirical and decidedly less...well, biased. Allow me to demonstrate:</span><br />
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<li><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">With a 25.9 K%, his propensity for the strikeout trails only Kelly Johnson for the team lead (not including Jeff Mathis on account of at-bat scarcity and the fact that he's Jeff Mathis).</span></li>
<li><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">His tendency to chase balls outside the zone (35% O-Swing) is second only to J.P Arencibia (38%) among everyday players. </span></li>
<li><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">His isolated power (.126) is third-worst among everyday players.</span></li>
<li><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">His .326 BABIP is almost certainly unsustainable -- league average BABIP is .267.</span></li>
<li><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">His defense. Oy. As flawed as defensive metrics are, a -34.2 UZR/150 makes it virtually impossible to say anything remotely positive about his ability with the leather. </span></li>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I know this seems inconsistent with what I wrote earlier, but despite how I opined in March, I've never really liked Eric Thames. You'll notice that even as I lauded the Jays for giving Thames the job out of Spring Training, my rhapsody revolved more around the organization's conscientious personnel management than Thames' abilities as a baseball player.</span><br />
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #222222; line-height: 18px;"><i><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">"Even if you don't agree with the decision, it's definitely the fair one. Thames did nothing to lose his job. The body of work isn't exactly extensive, but in 82 games last year, Thames accomplished that which has continually eluded Snider throughout his career: he came to work every day and, for the most, performed as expected. By the time October came around, Thames had a .262 average to go along with 12 homeruns and an isolated slugging percentage 70 points higher than Snider."</span></i></span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #222222; line-height: 18px;"><i><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></i></span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #222222;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 18px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I stand by my assertion that it was the right decision, because, at the time, it was. I suppose you could label it imprudent, opting to forego Take #5 at developing Travis Snider into a bona fide major leaguer in favour of a player whose ceiling is pretty unanimously considered to be lower.</span></span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 18px;"> </span><br />
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #222222;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 18px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But while a moderate regression was to be expected for Thames, his performance this season has been so poor --- consistently, and on both sides of the ball -- that the slack earned through his respectable 2011 has been effectively exhausted.</span></span></span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #222222;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 18px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #222222;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 18px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Manager </span></span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #222222; line-height: 18px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">John Farrell had said that he needed to see at least 100 plate appearances before making any drastic decisions with respect to personnel. Right on cue,</span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #222222; line-height: 18px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> after posting a laughable .186/.273/.314 line through 132 trips to the dish, the Blue Jays sent Adam Lind to Las Vegas last week. There was also some speculation -- and, depending on who you ask, erroneous reportage -- that he was placed on outright waivers. </span></span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #222222; line-height: 18px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #222222;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 18px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">As of 4:20 a.m on May 25, Eric Thames has had 147 plate appearances in 2012. The organization has demonstrated a willingness to send struggling players down. Rajai Davis has enjoyed a recent surge in playing time. Essentially, the confluence of a number of factors seem to suggest that the writing is on the wall, or, at the very least, that the can of spray paint is in hand.</span></span></span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #222222;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 18px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #222222;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 18px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Whether or not Travis Snider (.333/.411/.604 in 26 games with Las Vegas) is worthy of a promotion is a topic for another day, but it's becoming increasingly apparent that the only thing big league about Eric Thames is the facial hair. And perhaps the musculature.</span></span></span><br />
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<br />Jonah Birenbaumhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17710512915345313836noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8950768613470322430.post-28724320560917197352012-04-23T12:19:00.019-07:002012-04-24T07:31:56.910-07:00Sweeps and Hutch and StuffRemember in your formative years when your (insert sport) team would beat up on the team comprised predominantly of the uncoordinated, asthmatic, and/or overweight kids?<br />
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That's kind of how I feel about the Jays' success in Kansas City.<br />
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Sure it feels good to assert your dominance over a team that's clearly inferior, but the results fail to provide an accurate sense of your true abilities. Don't get me wrong, I'm not trying to belittle a four-game sweep -- it's not easy to beat <span style="font-style: italic;">any</span> team on four consecutive nights, especially on the road -- but considering how Kansas City has played over the season's first fortnight, you have to think this sweep is more a testament to their uniform ineptitude than anything else.<br />
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But that caveat aside, it's hard to find too much to complain about when you notch four Ws in as many nights. Sure, Sergio Santos went down, Adam Lind continues to struggle, and interim closer Francisco Cordero didn't inspire a whole lot of confidence in his first save appearance, but we did get a nice, longish look at Drew Hutchison.<br />
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Though his "signature command" eluded him for virtually his entire outing on Saturday, the 21-year-old did enough in his major league debut to get the win. Having said that, his erratic performance was somewhat surprising given his reputation as a strike-thrower. The former 15th-round pick walked three in just 5.1 innings, a far cry from the guy who averaged 2.2 BB/9 and 4.32 SO/BB for his minor-league career.<br />
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However, Hutchison demonstrated poise beyond his years in the face of adversity, showing no emotion after surrendering homeruns to both Alex Gordon and Eric Hosmer, respectively. Considering he'd only made six starts above the High-A level heading into Saturday, Hutch fared reasonably well in his debut; I'll attribute his tenuous command to jitters. But what really stuck out for me was his resemblance to another young Blue Jays hurler, Henderson Alvarez.<br />
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Incidentally, there appear to be a number of overt parallels between Hutchison and Henderson, not including that nominal one. Over ten starts in 2011, Alvarez threw his fastball 71.8% of the time; while he averaged over 93 mph with his heater, he missed bats just a scant 6.4% of the time, presumably due to his lack of a third pitch. Like Alvarez, Hutchison favours the fastball, and threw it almost 80% of the time in his debut. He also has a propensity to pitch to contact, missing bats on just 5.1% of his pitches on Saturday. And, perhaps most importantly, like Alvarez, Hutch has yet to develop a respectable third pitch.<br />
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Given their similarities with respect to age, makeup, repertoire, and...uh, team, it'll be fun to watch their mutual development, especially if we can somehow foist the nickname "Starsky" upon Alvarez.<br />
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And speaking of developments that are fun to watch, how about Colby Rasmus? I'd like to think our taciturn centrefielder won over some skeptics this series, hitting .357 with two homers and four RBIs. Needless to say, the Alabama Slammer is hot -- over his last 10 games, Rasmus is 13/37 (.351), and has reached base safely in all but one contest. And as exciting as those numbers are, they elicit even more giddiness when viewed in the context of his overall maturation as a hitter.<br />
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Below is Rasmus's spray chart from April 1-23, 2011. While his start to 2011 was, admittedly, stronger than that of 2012, last year he drove the ball almost exclusively to right-field.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhbMOEJphRjcvb2BLhcKm0HWK7L7QftUsN5ur0Da3RQOoUDpqL_UtzaLZwJ8FMUVTIm_dNsvu1tRGZHeI7ELqDQUwB_2LnWclaCNGM-9uIN26tnCGRxRmECeElAV4DyjwDenYAFOluGcwoP/s1600/RasmusSpray2011.png"><img alt="" border="0" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5734815268576706306" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhbMOEJphRjcvb2BLhcKm0HWK7L7QftUsN5ur0Da3RQOoUDpqL_UtzaLZwJ8FMUVTIm_dNsvu1tRGZHeI7ELqDQUwB_2LnWclaCNGM-9uIN26tnCGRxRmECeElAV4DyjwDenYAFOluGcwoP/s400/RasmusSpray2011.png" style="cursor: hand; cursor: pointer; display: block; height: 300px; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; width: 400px;" /></a><br />
<span style="text-decoration: underline;"><br /></span>Now, if you look at this year's spray chart, you'll notice there's no such concentration of green dots. This right-field bias appears to be gone, as his hits are distributed rather equitably throughout the ballpark so far this season.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZurY0sn6FHAv72ThaXfgN_IZOeZlR7OSTKH-SgDwWZA3UhwrsZ_PmiK7AYMqYexYBHAFuAhdGGRa2Yc5TFn8WvGkCsJsWQDIcMobKHdM1NChQY8jB6y3N1TkGBBn5WmiEmZbgeuiZE4HK/s1600/RasmusSpray2012.png"><img alt="" border="0" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5734972792174026658" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZurY0sn6FHAv72ThaXfgN_IZOeZlR7OSTKH-SgDwWZA3UhwrsZ_PmiK7AYMqYexYBHAFuAhdGGRa2Yc5TFn8WvGkCsJsWQDIcMobKHdM1NChQY8jB6y3N1TkGBBn5WmiEmZbgeuiZE4HK/s400/RasmusSpray2012.png" style="cursor: hand; cursor: pointer; display: block; height: 300px; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; width: 400px;" /></a><br />
Small sample size notwithstanding, he's hitting line drives with unprecedented frequency (26.1% of the time), and a tempered leg kick has him hitting the ball to all fields. Both of those things augur well for him, myself, and my loyal band of unabashed Rasmus boosters.<br />
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On the other side of the ball, the Blue Jays defense turned nine double plays (and one triple play) in Kansas City, and now lead the majors with an average of 1.44 twin-killings per game. Of course, this couldn't have been possible without the selfless efforts of Royals catcher Brayan Pena.<br />
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Defense is often an area of the game that gets overlooked, but the Blue Jays have done a fine job making plays behind their young rotation this year. And Kelly Johnson's backhand-glove-flip-extravaganza in the rubber match of the series was one of the more adroit displays of defensive prowess in recent memory.<br />
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While the sweep may have inflated the team's sense of self-worth, aplomb is a good thing. Onwards to Maryland. Complacency, be damned.Jonah Birenbaumhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17710512915345313836noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8950768613470322430.post-6075483694550901062012-04-18T09:44:00.006-07:002012-04-18T10:12:31.272-07:00Colby Be Hackin'Following last night's victory over the Tampa Bay (Devil) Rays, I enjoyed the honourable distinction of being Mike Wilner's first caller on the Blue Jays Talk.<br /><br />I asked Mike if he thought John Farrell or hitting coach Dwayne Murphy might be reluctant to approach Colby Rasmus about perhaps adjusting his hitting philosophy with respect to hacking at the first pitch. Wilner assured me that neither Farrell nor Murph would have any hesitation in addressing such an issue with Rasmus, but also insisted that such a discussion is not necessary at the moment.<br /><br />I don't necessarily disagree. In fact, being notorious for offering at the first pitch myself, it'd be supremely hypocritical of me to chastise someone else for doing it. And of course, the differences between the MLB and the Canadian Intercollegiate Baseball Association are negligible. <br /><br />That said, Rasmus has swung at the first offering in 49% (19/39) of his plate appearances so far this season. When he has managed to put the ball in play on the first pitch, he's 0-for-8. While he does, for the most part, swing predominantly at strikes -- 16/19 first pitches he's hacked at have been in the strike zone, according to Pitch F/X -- he's also demonstrated a tendency to swing a tad indiscriminately, not taking into account the kind of pitch being thrown; 7/19 first-pitch swings have been at breaking balls or off-speed pitches.<br /><br />Here are the Pitch F/X charts for your analytical pleasure.<br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgCJlw1MsODiJ6cSgOR-zai5G_UGuXg_K7kync5RpMMuJ_mUIg9qmnSJrSJ3uALOOxj-PInlmIh57oFmKVJhUSKQ_60cMMJca5QAJrsgphczedPRHU8Vx9To9_ePJbnUvf1hVKA3wgaoYN0/s1600/RasmusSpray00"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 240px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgCJlw1MsODiJ6cSgOR-zai5G_UGuXg_K7kync5RpMMuJ_mUIg9qmnSJrSJ3uALOOxj-PInlmIh57oFmKVJhUSKQ_60cMMJca5QAJrsgphczedPRHU8Vx9To9_ePJbnUvf1hVKA3wgaoYN0/s320/RasmusSpray00" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5732786858145710834" border="0" /></a><br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjKFwkgTFAsxCPr3e1CEhUuhGMfIiEo4oIqyak1TRwRitHZ8v0NGaYI2hB4vfRgtTEZdqZzZtueDiWlEKOrae9IoysZFzOEJT37iq3pE4TBxDrNij6aUfCE1DTm1l0QUburHitG5L4Qi0EM/s1600/RasmusChartFP"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 240px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjKFwkgTFAsxCPr3e1CEhUuhGMfIiEo4oIqyak1TRwRitHZ8v0NGaYI2hB4vfRgtTEZdqZzZtueDiWlEKOrae9IoysZFzOEJT37iq3pE4TBxDrNij6aUfCE1DTm1l0QUburHitG5L4Qi0EM/s320/RasmusChartFP" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5732787448872408706" border="0" /></a><br />Now, his relatively minute .200 BABIP suggests that he's been extremely unlucky at the dish thus far, and his propensity for hitting the ball the other way, especially with power, is very encouraging, so make whatever inferences you want*.<br /><br />*I'll be at the game tonight; if Rasmus does anything remotely positive on a first pitch, I rescind your right to make negative inferences.Jonah Birenbaumhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17710512915345313836noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8950768613470322430.post-45511427975978416402012-04-14T15:28:00.004-07:002012-04-14T21:47:25.933-07:00Bullpains<div>Remember Jon Rauch? I kinda miss that guy.</div><div><br /></div><div>As scary as the preceding sentence is, it's quickly becoming a reality.</div><div><br /></div>It's entirely premature to say that the revamped Blue Jays bullpen is as ineffective a unit as that of 2011, but I can't say I'm not tempted.<div><br /></div><div>Today, for the fourth time in just eight contests, the bullpen was unable to maintain the lead it inherited. And although I wish I could assign blame merely to one solitary rogue, this propensity for coughing up the lead seems to have plagued an alarming number of this team's late-inning hurlers.</div><div><br /></div><div>First, closer Sergio Santos infamously blew his first two save opportunities as a Blue Jay, forfeiting the lead in the ninth against Cleveland on April 7, and then again two nights later against the Red Sox.</div><div><br /></div><div>Next, geriatric southpaw Darren Oliver was unable to hold a run-one lead in the eighth inning against Baltimore last night; consequently, the Jays fell 7-5.</div><div><br /></div><div>And finally, Casey Janssen -- who had surrendered three runs over his previous two outings -- effectively squandered a solid start from Henderson Alvarez, surrendering a game-tying, solo homerun to Wilson Betemit in the eighth inning of today's contest. The following inning, Francisco Cordero yielded a two-run moonshot to Nolan Reimold that proved to be the game's decisive blow.</div><div><br /></div><div>Much was made of the relief renaissance that Alex Anthopoulos engineered this offseason, but what if, behind all the smoke and mirrors and rhetoric, this group of relievers is just an ineffective as last year's?</div><div><br /></div><div>And to salt the wound, there' s a delicious irony in the fact that Frank Francisco has converted all three of his save opportunities with the Mets this year. Isn't that depressing?</div><div><br /></div><div>The fact remains, the new pieces in the bullpen represent Anthopoulos's biggest offseason investment. So when are we going to see a return? </div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div> </div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div>Jonah Birenbaumhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17710512915345313836noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8950768613470322430.post-91653295871467011092012-04-10T18:01:00.006-07:002012-04-10T18:49:56.391-07:00Drabek Impresses in Season Debut...Again<div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:arial;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">It'd be supremely disingenuous to suggest that Kyle Drabek's impressive start tonight in any portends a year of brilliance -- he began his turbulent 2011 season with an equally dominant start against the Minnesota Twins -- but it's reason for optimism nevertheless.</span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:arial;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:arial;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">Facing a Boston lineup presumably buoyed by a ninth-inning, comeback victory the night before, Drabek was virtually unhittable through his 5.1 innings of work, yielding a solitary run on three hits and three walks. Working with a 3-1 lead, he was promptly removed in the sixth after his command began to wane. I can only assume his patience was equally exhausted after having to endure an evening with Tim </span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(34, 34, 34); line-height: 16px; "><em style="font-style: normal; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:arial;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">McClelland</span></span></em></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:arial;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"> behind the plate. </span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:arial;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:arial;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">Drabek's outing helped to relieve the pain of last night's immensely disheartening collapse conducted by Toronto's newest pariah, Sergio Santos. And of course, it goes without saying that Drabek's performance is also encouraging from a developmental perspective.</span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:arial;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:arial;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">His newfound maturity was manifest tonight, as he sublimated his implosion impulse when a McClelland squeeze engendered a Jacoby Ellsbury walk to lead off the sixth inning. With his next two outings coming against the Baltimore Orioles and Kansas City Royals, respectively, it's conceivable that he pieces together an April that opens some eyes around the league.</span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:arial;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:arial;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:arial;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:arial;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:arial;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:arial;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:arial;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;"><br /></span></span></div><div><br /></div>Jonah Birenbaumhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17710512915345313836noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8950768613470322430.post-86997589245713401102012-04-05T17:37:00.010-07:002012-04-06T10:01:29.073-07:00We Undefeated<p style="margin: 0px; font: 12px arial;"></p><p style="margin: 0px; font: 12px arial;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;font-size:100%;" ><span class="Apple-style-span"><span class="Apple-style-span">How can anyone adequately articulate the whirlwind -- nay, the tornado -- of emotion that was Opening Day?</span></span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0px; font: 12px arial; min-height: 14px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:100%;"><span class="Apple-style-span"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px"></span><br /></span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0px; font: 12px arial;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;font-size:100%;" ><span class="Apple-style-span"><span class="Apple-style-span">I’ll be the first to admit that any attempt would prove futile.</span></span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0px; font: 12px arial; min-height: 14px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:100%;"><span class="Apple-style-span"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px"></span><br /></span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0px; font: 12px arial;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;font-size:100%;" ><span class="Apple-style-span"><span class="Apple-style-span">From Ricky Romero’s deplorable second inning to J.P Arencibia’s decisive, 16th-inning homerun, from Chris Perez’s remarkable 9th-inning implosion to Luis Perez’s four masterful innings of relief, the experience -- which spanned more than five hours -- was simply too emotionally jarring, too incomprehensibly transcendent to describe with the tools at my disposal.</span></span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0px; font: 12px arial; min-height: 14px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:100%;"><span class="Apple-style-span"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px"></span><br /></span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0px; font: 12px arial;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;font-size:100%;" ><span class="Apple-style-span"><span class="Apple-style-span">And yet, in a way, I’m tempted to succumb to the notion that the indefatigable resilience that the Blue Jays demonstrated for 16 consecutive innings today is, to some extent, a brilliant --albeit extreme -- representation of the character this team possesses.</span></span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0px; font: 12px arial; min-height: 14px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:100%;"><span class="Apple-style-span"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px"></span><br /></span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0px; font: 12px arial;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;font-size:100%;" ><span class="Apple-style-span"><span class="Apple-style-span">Allow me to demonstrate:</span></span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0px; font: 12px arial; min-height: 14px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:100%;"><span class="Apple-style-span"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px"></span><br /></span></span></p> <ul style="font-family: arial;font-family:arial;" > <li style="margin: 0px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; -moz-font-feature-settings: normal; -moz-font-language-override: normal;font-size:12px;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;font-size:100%;" ><span class="Apple-style-span"><span class="Apple-style-span">After a disastrous, 43-pitch, four-run second inning, Ricky Romero buckled down and didn’t surrender a hit for the rest of the day. But perhaps more importantly, Romero sublimated the impulse to implode emotionally and demonstratively. As Buck Martinez alluded to, this newfound maturity will be an integral component in his role as team ace.</span></span></span></li> </ul> <p style="margin: 0px; font: 12px arial; min-height: 14px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:100%;"><span class="Apple-style-span"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px"></span><br /></span></span></p> <ul style="font-family: arial;font-family:arial;" > <li style="margin: 0px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; -moz-font-feature-settings: normal; -moz-font-language-override: normal;font-size:12px;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;font-size:100%;" ><span class="Apple-style-span"><span class="Apple-style-span">Despite looking utterly helpless in his first three plate appearance, Kelly Johnson seriously manned-up in his fourth at-bat, ripping a single to centrefield off Chris Perez. He would come around to score in what would prove to be a three-run, game-tying, ninth-inning rally of epic proportions.</span></span></span></li> </ul> <p style="margin: 0px; font: 12px arial; min-height: 14px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:100%;"><span class="Apple-style-span"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px"></span><br /></span></span></p> <ul style="font-family: arial;font-family:arial;" > <li style="margin: 0px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; -moz-font-feature-settings: normal; -moz-font-language-override: normal;font-size:12px;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;font-size:100%;" ><span class="Apple-style-span"><span class="Apple-style-span">The Bullpen. Need I say more? Eleven innings. No runs. Just balls. By which I mean cojones, not, you know, errant pitches. Maybe Alex Anthopoulos was on to something when he went out and invested all that money to fortify the team’s relief corps.</span></span></span></li> </ul> <p style="margin: 0px; font: 12px arial; min-height: 14px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:100%;"><span class="Apple-style-span"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px"></span><br /></span></span></p> <ul style="font-family: arial;font-family:arial;" > <li style="margin: 0px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; -moz-font-feature-settings: normal; -moz-font-language-override: normal;font-size:12px;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;font-size:100%;" ><span class="Apple-style-span"><span class="Apple-style-span">Yes, Colby Rasmus went 0/7 today, but he did manage to sting two balls -- including an opposite-field shot that fell just shy of the warning track -- and made an absolutely sensational grab in centre-field. </span></span></span></li> </ul> <p style="margin: 0px; font: 12px arial; min-height: 14px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:100%;"><span class="Apple-style-span"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px"></span><br /></span></span></p> <ul style="font-family: arial;font-family:arial;" > <li style="margin: 0px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; -moz-font-feature-settings: normal; -moz-font-language-override: normal;font-size:12px;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;font-size:100%;" ><span class="Apple-style-span"><span class="Apple-style-span">Jose Bautista.</span></span></span></li> </ul><div style="font-family: arial;font-family:arial;" ><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:100%;"><span class="Apple-style-span">That being said, today's marathon was also fraught with exasperation.</span></span></div><div style="font-family: arial;font-family:arial;" ><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:100%;"><span class="Apple-style-span"><br /></span></span></div><div style="font-family: arial;font-family:arial;" ><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:100%;"><span class="Apple-style-span">For instance, Eric Thames misjudged at least two balls in left field -- one of which fell in for a double -- in what proved to be a rather disappointing inaugural Opening Day for him. </span></span></div><div style="font-family: arial;font-family:arial;" ><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:100%;"><span class="Apple-style-span"><br /></span></span></div><div style="font-family: arial;font-family:arial;" ><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:100%;"><span class="Apple-style-span">And speaking of lacklustre first Opening Days, Canadian </span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><i><span class="Apple-style-span"><span class="Apple-style-span">wunderkind</span></span></i></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:100%;"><span class="Apple-style-span"> Brett Lawrie looked absolutely clueless this afternoon. His abysmal day at the plate notwithstanding, he looked patently uncomfortable at the hot corner all day, bobbling two balls and bouncing a throw to Adam Lind at first-base. His performance, once again, reinforced the irrelevance of Spring Training statistics.</span></span></div><div style="font-family: arial;font-family:arial;" ><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:100%;"><span class="Apple-style-span"><br /></span></span></div><div style="font-family: arial;font-family:arial;" ><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:100%;"><span class="Apple-style-span">But the most egregious transgression of the day has to go to Rajai Davis. Rather than run to first base after popping up a sacrifice bunt, he opted instead to admire the fruits of his disastrous execution, and managed to turn bad play into an atrocious one. His flagrant disregard for any semblance of baseball sense was so offensive that...well, I don't know what. It was simply inexcusable.</span></span></div><div style="font-family: arial;font-family:arial;" ><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:100%;"><span class="Apple-style-span"><br /></span></span></div><div style="font-family: arial;font-family:arial;" ><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:100%;"><span class="Apple-style-span">Nevertheless, we're 1-0, and we even got to enjoy some extracurricular activity when Luis Perez brushed back Shin-Soo Choo in the 15th inning. That's always fun.</span></span></div> <p style="margin: 0px; font: 12px arial; min-height: 14px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:100%;"><span class="Apple-style-span"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px"></span><br /></span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0px; font: 12px arial;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;font-size:100%;" ><span class="Apple-style-span"><span class="Apple-style-span">I can’t even think of a clever way to wrap this post up. Too emotionally drained. </span></span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0px; font: 12px arial; min-height: 14px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:100%;"><span class="Apple-style-span"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px"></span><br /></span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0px; font: 12px arial;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;font-size:100%;" ><span class="Apple-style-span"><span class="Apple-style-span">Fortunately, we have an off-day tomorrow.</span></span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0px; font: 12px arial; min-height: 14px;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;font-size:100%;" > </span></p><p style="font-family: arial;"></p>Jonah Birenbaumhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17710512915345313836noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8950768613470322430.post-78288423628616745042012-04-04T00:16:00.003-07:002012-04-04T00:26:23.317-07:00Be Consistent: The Rasmus-Snider Paradox<p style="margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; font: 12.0px 'Times New Roman'"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:arial;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;">The vitriol that's been spewed towards Colby Rasmus by an overwhelming number of Blue Jays fans this offseason is nothing if not perplexing.</span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; font: 12.0px 'Times New Roman'; min-height: 15.0px"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:arial;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px"></span><br /></span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; font: 12.0px 'Times New Roman'"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:arial;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;">I say this because I’m certain many of these fans quick to brand Rasmus as a prospect that never materialized also belong to the pro-Travis Snider camp. Of course, there are subtle variations in their respective pedigrees, but fundamentally, they’re astonishing similar.</span></span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; font: 12.0px 'Times New Roman'; min-height: 15.0px"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:arial;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px"></span><br /></span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; font: 12.0px 'Times New Roman'"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:arial;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;">Both players were drafted out of high school in first round -- Rasmus in 2005; Snider in 2006. Both players excelled in the minor leagues -- Rasmus posted an OPS of .852 in 417 minor league contests; Snider sits at .901 over 439 games. And though it’s a purely superficial observation, both players possess a kind of abrasive haughtiness that’s tolerable so long as the production is there.</span></span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; font: 12.0px 'Times New Roman'; min-height: 15.0px"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:arial;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px"></span><br /></span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; font: 12.0px 'Times New Roman'"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:arial;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;">And yet the dichotomy in sentiment towards the two couldn’t be more dramatic. Travis is the golden-boy who’s simply a victim of developmental mismanagement while Rasmus is the uncoachable rogue with a bad attitude and equally unsavory reputation that St. Louis was happy to dispose of.</span></span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; font: 12.0px 'Times New Roman'; min-height: 15.0px"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:arial;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px"></span><br /></span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; font: 12.0px 'Times New Roman'"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:arial;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;">Rasmus’ attitude has to be the source of the antipathy because no reasonable person could actually dismiss a 25-year-old with his pedigree after only a scant 140 plate appearances in a Toronto uniform. And unlike Snider, Rasmus has enjoyed more than a modicum of success at the big league level. In his age-23 season, Rasmus posted a .276/.361/.498 line, along with 23 homeruns, 66 RBIs, and 12 stolen bases. His 132 OPS+ that season ranked 13th in the National League.</span></span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; font: 12.0px 'Times New Roman'; min-height: 15.0px"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:arial;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px"></span><br /></span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; font: 12.0px 'Times New Roman'"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:arial;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;">Yes, his brief stint with Toronto at the end of 2011 was discouraging, but bear in mind that he was struggling with a wrist injury for much of that time, not to mention the task of acclimating himself to a new country, new clubhouse, new teammates, and a new organizational philosophy. And frankly, I surmise that it was difficult for Rasmus to endear himself so quickly to a new team considering the reputation that continually precedes him.</span></span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; font: 12.0px 'Times New Roman'; min-height: 15.0px"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:arial;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px"></span><br /></span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; font: 12.0px 'Times New Roman'"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:arial;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;">Looking deeper into Rasmus’ 2011 struggles, it seems as though his lack of success was, at least partially, due to some rotten luck. His BABIP (batting average on balls in play) was .267 for the season, more than 30 points below the putative league average. Upon arriving in Toronto, his BABIP dropped to a microscopic .217, indicating that he was even less fortunate north of the border. Of course, his lofty .354 BABIP from 2010 is likely not a sustainable figure, but it’s reasonable to believe that his true ability lies somewhere in between the two extremes. And while the production left something to be desired in 2011, he did manage to cut his strikeout rate down to 22.1% from 27.7% the year before.</span></span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; font: 12.0px 'Times New Roman'; min-height: 15.0px"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:arial;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px"></span><br /></span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; font: 12.0px 'Times New Roman'"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:arial;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;">Earlier this offseason, Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus polled a group of eight major-league general managers as to whether they’d rather have Rasmus or Cuban-defector-turned-Oakland-Athletic Yoenis Cespedes as their team’s centrefielder. Six of the eight GMs picked Cespedes. Among those who preferred the Cuban, at least two of them cited Rasmus’ character issues in their reasoning.</span></span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; font: 12.0px 'Times New Roman'; min-height: 15.0px"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:arial;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px"></span><br /></span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; font: 12.0px 'Times New Roman'"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:arial;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;">“I don't like the swing, and there's something about the J.D. Drew way he goes about things," one AL scouting executive said.</span></span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; font: 12.0px 'Times New Roman'; min-height: 15.0px"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:arial;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px"></span><br /></span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; font: 12.0px 'Times New Roman'"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:arial;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;">“I just don't buy the whole 'Tony La Russa turned this guy into a bad player' thing," said another American league front office member.</span></span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; font: 12.0px 'Times New Roman'; min-height: 15.0px"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:arial;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px"></span><br /></span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; font: 12.0px 'Times New Roman'"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:arial;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;">While coachability and attitude are certainly relevant attributes, the list of successful, even superstar-caliber athletes whose personalities are little less than abhorrent is an extremely extensive document.</span></span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; font: 12.0px 'Times New Roman'; min-height: 15.0px"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:arial;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px"></span><br /></span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; font: 12.0px 'Times New Roman'"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:arial;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;">Furthermore, the beautiful thing about computerized projections is that they don’t care about character flaws, perceived or legitimate. They don’t care if you don’t run out ground balls. They don’t care if you’re taciturn with the media. Incidentally, PECOTA predicts that Rasmus will enjoy a modest bounce-back in 2012, with a .252/.321/.442 line, along with 20 homers and 70 RBIs.</span></span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; font: 12.0px 'Times New Roman'; min-height: 15.0px"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:arial;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px"></span><br /></span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; font: 12.0px 'Times New Roman'"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:arial;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;">And for those insisting that Rasmus’ abysmal numbers this spring in any way portend the inevitability of an equally disappointing regular season, to you I say, it’s Spring Training.</span></span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; font: 12.0px 'Times New Roman'; min-height: 15.0px"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:arial;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px"></span><br /></span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; font: 12.0px 'Times New Roman'"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:arial;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;">Go look up Gabe Gross.</span></span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; font: 12.0px 'Times New Roman'; min-height: 15.0px"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:arial;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px"></span><br /></span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; font: 12.0px 'Times New Roman'"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:arial;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;">So for those Snider enthusiasts who are also calling for Rasmus’ conspicuously unkempt head, please note the inherent hypocrisy. You can’t reasonably support one and condemn the other. Otherwise, you’re just as inconsistent as they are.</span></span></span></p>Jonah Birenbaumhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17710512915345313836noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8950768613470322430.post-38722331229614998982012-04-02T11:59:00.003-07:002012-04-02T12:59:36.658-07:00Cecil? Don't Make Me LaffIf nothing else, Brett Cecil is selfless.<br /><br />So concerned was he with ensuring the Detroit Tigers were prepared for Opening Day, he generously assumed the role of pitching machine in his final Grapefruit League appearance today.<br /><br />Over his four innings of magnanimity, Cecil surrendered a staggering nine runs -- seven earned -- on 11 hits and one walk while striking out one. Consequently, his spring ERA stands at 6.48.<br /><br />If, for some inexplicable reason, you reject this theory that Cecil was simply overcome by some altrusitic intention, you'll have to confront the reality that Toronto's most lambasted southpaw -- whose job security, some suggest, has become increasingly tenuous of late -- got absolutely ripped in his final spring bid to secure his place in the rotation.<br /><br />At the end of last season, it seemed a foregone conclusion that Cecil would serve as Toronto's #3/4 starter in 2012. Despite a turbulent 2011 punctuated by an eight-week demotion to AAA, Cecil fashioned an ERA of 4.02 from July through September, performing just well enough to keep the skeptics and naysayers -- a contingent I, myself, belong to -- at bay.<br /><br /><br />And while many have lauded Cecil's off-season conditioning efforts, his substantially diminished midsection does little to assuage my fears about his equally diminished velocity. The always reliable Shi Davidi reported that "Cecil was mostly 86-87 in first" this afternoon, and "topped out at 88, a ball."<br /><br />I've never subscribed to the notion that velocity is necessarily a prerequisite to success, but the evidence is certainly compelling me to reconsider. I mean, look at Brad Mills.<br /><br />At this point, it looks like Kyle Drabek will fill the the McGowan vacancy, but I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss the possibility of awarding Aaron Laffey the job that putatively belongs to Cecil.<br /><br />Frankly, with the wealth of high-ceiling arms Alex Anthopoulos has accumulated, it's conceivable that Cecil's future with this team is limited anyway. Over 65 major league starts, Cecil has hucked and guiled his way to an uninspiring 4.36 xFIP. Sure, Laffey's technically pales in comparison at 4.76 (over 126 appearances -- 49 starts), but given the current ethos of this team -- and weighing the potential upside of keeping Cecil in the rotation -- I still feel inclined to throw the guy who gives me the best chance to win tonight.<br /><br />Today, I feel that guy is Aaron Laffey, not Brett Cecil. Tomorrow, I may feel differently.<br /><br />But for now, it's hard to justify giving a rotation spot to a guy who bears an increasingly unsettling resemblance to a pitching machine.Jonah Birenbaumhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17710512915345313836noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8950768613470322430.post-25580647516040436602012-03-29T21:26:00.007-07:002012-03-29T22:43:51.409-07:00Kan Kyle Keep his Kool?<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:arial;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;">I wouldn't attribute Dustin McGowan's recent bout of plantar fasciitis to divine intervention. </span></span><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:arial;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:arial;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;">In fact, quite the contrary -- I'd be far more disposed to a theistic inclination if he stayed healthy for, say, two consecutive months of baseball. </span></span><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:arial;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:arial;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;">However, there's something almost supernatural in the timing of McGowan's most recent affliction, as it comes at a time when Kyle Drabek looks more primed than ever to claim ownership of a big-league rotation spot.</span></span></div></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:arial;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:arial;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;">And considering John Farrell's near-palpable skepticism that McGowan will be ready to go come Opening Day, it is practically a </span></span><i><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:arial;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;">fait accompli</span></span></i><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:arial;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;"> that Drabek will get the opportunity for an extended audition with the big-league club. Should McGowan's health problems persist -- and at this point, there's no precedent that suggests they won't -- it's conceivable that Drabek finds himself flirting with the notion of a permanent gig, provided his performance warrants one. </span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:arial;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:arial;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;">Of course, Spring numbers must be taken with a grain of salt, but Drabek's performance, at the very least, evokes cautious optimism.</span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:arial;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:arial;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;">Over his last three Grapefruit League appearances, the 24-year-old has allowed just two earned runs in 11.1 innings. In his most recent outing, he held the Yankees scoreless over five innings while striking out five and walking just two. </span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:arial;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:arial;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;">But more encouraging than numbers is the fact that Farrell has extolled Drabek's "</span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 20px; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:arial;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;"> very good emotional control" this Spring. Composure, on even a semi-consistent basis, has thus far eluded Drabek throughout his brief big-league career -- one characterized more by pedigree than performance, and of course, a propensity for emotional outbursts on the mound.</span></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 20px; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:arial;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;"><br /></span></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 20px; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:arial;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;">So as Drabek begins to move beyond the incipient stages of his development, it's very encouraging to see -- or at least have Farrell recognize -- emotional maturation. Generally, tenuous </span></span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style=" line-height: 20px; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:arial;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;">emotional composure is not conducive to success on the mound, especially in the AL East.</span></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 20px; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:arial;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;"><br /></span></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 20px; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:arial;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;">But it's only appropriate that Drabek get a chance to substantiate the hype this year -- everybody else on the team does.</span></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style=" line-height: 20px; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:arial;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;"><br /></span></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 20px; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:arial;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;"><br /></span></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style=" line-height: 20px; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:arial;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;"><br /></span></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:arial, helvetica, sans-serif;font-size:130%;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style=" line-height: 20px;font-size:14px;"><br /></span></span></div>Jonah Birenbaumhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17710512915345313836noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8950768613470322430.post-25510791214855367792012-03-27T10:21:00.002-07:002012-03-27T10:25:35.767-07:00Dust-in Time?Verbal pontification today: <a href="http://dl.dropbox.com/u/45309914/Podcast1.mp3">my thoughts on Dustin McGowan's contract extension</a>.<br /><br />Feel free to leave a comment.<br /><br />Enjoy.Jonah Birenbaumhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17710512915345313836noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8950768613470322430.post-34218032760483341192012-03-25T17:51:00.007-07:002012-03-26T09:00:29.264-07:00Sigh, SniderOnce all the feelings of lachrymose and accusations of myopia subside, you'll realize that the Blue Jays made the right choice in anointing Eric Thames as the Opening Day left-fielder.<br /><br />I realize this is a tough pill to swallow seeing as the affinity for Travis Snider from both the organization and fan-base is a profound one. He may not incite the same giddiness that Bryce Harper does, but Toronto's love for Travis Snider is still rather transcendent.<br /><br />The thing about this love, however, is that, for the most part, it's unrequited. In 232 career games over four separate stints, Snider has accumulated a 1.7 WAR rating, a staggering 26.9% strikeout rate, and a meagre .318 wOBA. <br /><br />And despite a valiant effort from Snider this spring, the Jays brass deemed that Thames is, for now, the right man for the job.<br /><br />Even if you don't agree with the decision, it's definitely the fair one. Thames did nothing to lose his job. The body of work isn't exactly extensive, but in 82 games last year, Thames accomplished that which has continually eluded Snider throughout his career: he came to work every day and, for the most, performed as expected. By the time October came around, Thames had a .262 average to go along with 12 homeruns and an isolated slugging percentage 70 points higher than Snider. And when you consider the fact that Thames' spring thus far consists of a .333/.380/.511 line, it would've been a superlative injustice not to give him the job.<br /><br />I sympathize for Snider. I can only imagine the emotional roller-coaster ride that has been his professional baseball career. I mean, even as a fan I've been kept up at night by his offensive volatility. But as much as it pains me to say it, just like a bad relationship, you need to know when to call it quits.<br /><br />Of course, you never want to concede that the time you've invested and the anguish you've endured went for naught. But when you sift through the sentimentality, you see that Snider is a 24-year-old former-prospect whose development was so egregiously mismanaged that the player he is now bears no resemblance to player he was expected to be.<br /><br />And there is a part of me that, like any other fan, wants to approach this emotionally rather than empirically. I want Snider to get the job because, well, he's Travis Snider. Before Arencibia, before d'Arnaud, before Gose, there was Snider. He was the first prospect whose professional development I meticulously followed. He was touted as a potential saviour during a period of despair for the Blue Jays. When Delgado was a memory, Wells was battling inconsistency, and Brett Lawrie was still attending Sweet 16 parties, Snider was a reason for optimism.<br /><br />And the thing is, I don't think he's beyond salvation; he could very well develop into the middle-of-the-order bat that a myriad of analysts projected him to be, but it's hard to envisage him doing that in a Blue Jays uniform. We've reached the point where he needs to face major league pitching every day in order to progress, and with each at-bat in Las Vegas, Snider's development will continue to stagnate. The problem is, it's equally counterproductive to have him and Thames platoon in left-field, with each player receiving 12-14 at-bats per week while mutual resentment begins to fester.<br /><br />But what really irks me is the temerity of Jays management who suggested a pretense of open competition for left field. With Thames firmly ensconced in left field at the end of 2011, Snider's performance this Spring would've had to be otherworldly to supplant him. Yes, it's good to light a fire underneath a player, but it's cruel to let him burn. And the kicker is, I'm not sure that Alex Anthoupolos is convinced Travis Snider is not his left-fielder of the future.<br /><br />With only one year of options left on his contract, the time for some prudent decision-making is fast approaching, and it wouldn't shock me if either one of Snider or Thames was out of the organization sometime in the near future.<br /><br />But whether it's Thames' rippling biceps or Snider's regrettable mustache that's removed from the equation, the fact remains, in baseball as in life, parting is such sweet sorrow.Jonah Birenbaumhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17710512915345313836noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8950768613470322430.post-87127488115962050772012-02-24T13:38:00.003-08:002012-02-24T13:51:35.880-08:00Rasmus Ready for New ChapterA minor mechanical tweak and a significant attitude adjustment has Colby Rasmus brimming with excitement for the 2012 season.<br /><br />The 25-year-old centre fielder, acquired by the Toronto Blue Jays from the St. Louis Cardinals last July, has reportedly toned down an aggressive leg-kick that was disrupting his timing at the plate, and Blue Jays manager John Farrell is enthused about his potential.<br /><br />"From a fundamental standpoint, the more controlled leg kick, he was able to handle the ball away from him, handle the ball on the inner part of the plate, he was hitting the ball to all fields," Farrell says.<br /><br />But perhaps more importantly, the notoriously surly Rasmus has come into spring training with a new outlook, one that's decidedly different from that of the hot-tempered youngster who frequently butted heads with Cardinals skipper Tony La Russa.<br /><br />"The most important thing that stood out was his eagerness and his attitude of being very positive, couldn't wait to get to camp and couldn't wait to get back involved," says Farrell.<br /><br />The former first-round draft pick will play an integral role in the revolution currently underway north of the border. Cost-controllable with a high-ceiling, Rasmus represents the kind of team that general manager Alex Anthopoulos is trying to build. <br /><br />Alongside other burgeoning talents like Brett Lawrie, J.P. Arencibia, and Henderson Alvarez, Rasmus will be a huge factor in the success -- or failure -- of a very young Toronto Blue Jays team in 2012.Jonah Birenbaumhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17710512915345313836noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8950768613470322430.post-39740055977200019492011-12-20T09:30:00.000-08:002011-12-21T10:23:36.975-08:00Blue Jays Holiday Wish ListI want you to do something for me.<div><br /></div><div>I want you to think back to the Christmases of your childhood.</div><div><br /></div><div>Think back to that one year when there was something you wanted more than anything in the world, some toy that you coveted so badly that the days leading up to Christmas seemed as though they were spent on the cross. </div><div><br /></div><div>Do you remember that Christmas morning? Running down the stairs with unbridled enthusiasm as your sleepy-eyed parents struggled to match your excitement. Remember how ferociously you tore at the wrapping paper and the futility with which you tried to resist the premature smile that crept over your face?</div><div><br /></div><div>Now for the purpose of this exercise, I want you to imagine that beneath the wrapping paper, inside the box, there was nothing. Not so much as a lump of coal.</div><div><br /></div><div>Fortunately, I have no such memory because, well, I'm Jewish.</div><div><br /></div><div>But I can imagine that is exactly how the vast majority of Blue Jays fans felt last night when it was revealed that Texas had won the rights to negotiate with Yu Darvish.</div><div><br /></div><div>However, today marks the first day of Chanukkah. For those unfamiliar with this holiday, it's the Jewish equivalent of Christmas except we boast the luxury of an additional seven days of presents. Oh, and instead of celebrating the birth of our saviour we rejoice over the fact that we were able to fend off another attempt at our annihilation.</div><div><br /></div><div>So, given the festivity in the air, I think it's only appropriate that I devise a Blue Jays Chanukkah list. In this case, Alex Anthopoulos will serve as Santa (for lack of a Jewish equivalent).</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div>1. Prince Fielder -- Hey, if there's one thing that Chanukkah proves it's that bigger miracles have happened. The wiley Scott Boras has ever so patiently let a market develop for his client's services, and with the Jays losing on Darvish, it stands to reason that they will at least throw their hat into the ring. Ultimately, this decision will come down to years. Boras likely recognizes that this offseason represents Prince's best opportunity to maximize his profits, rather than signing a shorter deal (five or six years) and heading back onto the market again at age 32 or 33. Having said that, Darvishgate did demonstrate that the Jays have money to spend, and having Prince hitting behind Jose Bautista would instantly give the Jays the best 3-4 punch in the game. Also, Texas' acquisition of Darvish probably removes them from the equation, eliminating one of the supposed favourites for Prince. </div><div><br /></div><div>2. Matt Garza -- The Cubs are shopping their ace aggressively, and the Jays are in desperate need of starting pitching help. Garza enjoyed three strong years with the Tampa Bay Rays, over which he fashioned an ERA of 3.86 in 94 starts and one relief appearance, while averaging 7.1 Ks/9. The former first-round pick would likely fill the No. 2 spot in the rotation behind Ricky Romero, and the Jays have the organization depth to pull off a move like this.</div><div><br /></div><div>3. Gio Gonzalez -- While Gio would ostensibly serve the same purpose as Garza, this present comes with more strings attached, namely an astronomical walk rate. While Gonzalez has pitched quite well over the past two years, his numbers have been inflated by the pitcher-friendly confines of the Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum. Though he posted an impressive 3.12 ERA over 32 starts last year, Gonzalez averaged almost a full run more per start on the road. He also led the league in walks, a factor that will not play well in the much more hitter-friendly Rogers Centre.</div><div><br /></div><div>4. Carlos Beltran -- The holidays are the season of renewed hope. In this case, Carlos Beltran could serve as the poster boy. The aging outfielder continues his quest to reemergence in 2012 after a solid bounceback 2011 campaign split between the Mets and the Giants. Though he's only averaged 96 games played over the past three seasons, Beltran posted a .300 average with 22 homers and 84 RBIs in 142 games last year, and signing with an American League team could alleviate some of the physical strain of playing the outfield every day. At a reasonable cost with a team-friendly deal, I'd take Beltran in a heartbeat.</div><div><br /></div><div>5. Andrew Bailey -- The Blue Jays bullpen is in a state of disarray. Sure, we have Sergio Santos now, but aside from him and Casey Janssen, the rest of our relief corps remains highly suspect. In fact, aside from those two and Luis Perez, there doesn't appear to be anyone who's guaranteed a spot. Trading for Bailey would also allow AA to utilize his players as he intended, reserving Janssen for the 7th inning rather than using him as a set-up man. Bailey does have a history of arm trouble, but he's only 27, and has averaged a strikeout per inning for his career. You can always use talent like that.</div><div><br /></div><div>6. Edwin Jackson -- Jackson enjoyed an abbreviated stint with the Blue Jays in 2011. Really abbreviated. In fact, I'm not even sure he made it to Pearson Airport before he had been flipped for Colby Rasmus. But nonetheless, Jackson would be a decent fit for the Blue Jays. His command issues are well documented, and he is seldom economical with his pitches, but he would be a decent No. 3 starter down the road, and has averaged a sub-4.00 ERA over his past three seasons.</div><div><br /></div><div>7. Hiroki Kuroda -- I know he's not Yu Darvish. But he might be better. Kuroda has been a rock in the Dodgers rotation for the past four seasons, over which he has fashioned an impressive 3.45 ERA. He's not the flashiest of pitchers, but he's good at keeping hitters off-balance, and his BB/9 ratio is consistently well above the league average. The only drawback is his age; he will be 37 in February.</div><div><br /></div><div>8. Brandon Phillips -- I don't know how viable this trade route still is, but I would love to see @DatDudeBP turning double-plays with Yunel Escobar in 2012. He's a dynamic talent who ranks among the elite offensive second-basemen in the game. He would also bring some much needed swagger to a rather insipid Toronto squad.</div><div><br /></div><div>So there you have it, folks. There might not be a Darvish under your tree (or Menorah, as it were), but there's still reason to hope.</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div>Jonah Birenbaumhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17710512915345313836noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8950768613470322430.post-74901179133469911492011-12-19T20:50:00.000-08:002011-12-19T21:28:17.215-08:00What Yu Talking About?Alas, the Yu Darvish sweepstakes have come and gone, and much to the chagrin of the rather vociferous Blue Jays fan base, the Texas Rangers have emerged as the winners of the exclusive negotiating rights with Nippon Ham's prized Fighter.<div><br /></div><div>While the Blue Jays fell short, the saga managed to invigorate Jays fans to a level that I can't recall in recent memory, and demonstrated that a profound passion for baseball in Toronto is not a thing of the past. It's simply dormant.</div><div><br /></div><div>And despite the initial shock and disappointment -- and contrary to the premature and ubiquitous reports suggesting the Jays' bid had blown all others out of the water -- the fact that the Jays didn't obtain the rights to negotiate with Darvish is actually quite consistent with Alex Anthopoulos' <i>modus operandi</i>.</div><div><br /></div><div>In fact, the two moves AA has made this offseason -- trading for Jeff Mathis and Sergio Santos -- are a microcosm of his philosophy, which espouses the acquisition of cost-controllable assets. It was a tad optimistic (and somewhat delusional) to expect him to venture into a pursuit that would've ended costing upwards of $100M.</div><div><br /></div><div>Do I think the Jays bid on Darvish? Yes. Do I believe it was a competitive bid? I do. But AA, above all else, thinks economically. No algorithm exists for calculating how performance in Japan translates to performance in the MLB (see: Dasiuke Matsuzaka), and frankly, dishing out nine figures on a man who has never thrown a pitch in a big league uniform is not the kind of calculated, economically-astute move that has come to define AA.</div><div><br /></div><div>Since taking over for JP Ricciardi in October of 2009, Anthopoulos has quickly established himself as one of the most savvy executives in the game with shrewd moves that A) give the organization leverage rather than the player; and/or B) bring in high-risk/reward players at a relatively low cost. Signing Darvish would've been a pretty dangerous first deviation from this model.</div><div><br /></div><div>Of course, seeing Darvish in a Jays uniform would've been really cool. And yes, Darvish's presence would've ushered in a new contingent of fans to the Rogers Centre -- at least once every five days. But the fact that the Jays didn't land him doesn't necessarily mean that 2012 is simply another building block year. </div><div><br /></div><div>In fact, in regards to reinforcing the rotation, there are likely better alternatives to Darvish (and his price-tag) anyway. Various reports suggest that the Cubs are interested in trading right-hander Matt Garza, who has plenty of experience and success pitching in the AL East; southpaw Gio Gonzalez of the Oakland A's is also being shopped.</div><div><br /></div><div>And of course, the incumbent prize of the free-agent market, Prince Fielder, has yet to sign, and Toronto has been linked to the slugger in numerous reports.</div><div><br /></div><div>If Anthopoulos has proven anything, it's that he is liable to strike at any moment, and without warning. So go ahead and waste your tears over Darvish, if you must, but bear in mind that the guy who posted an inferior bid for negotiation rights with the Japanese/Iranian phenom is the same guy who acquired Brett Lawrie and managed to foist Vernon Wells' monstrosity of a contract on some other poor bloke in the same offseason.</div><div><br /></div><div>I think it's a little premature to fret.</div><div><br /></div><div>Don't Yu?</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div>Jonah Birenbaumhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17710512915345313836noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8950768613470322430.post-43996788006793168042011-09-14T09:07:00.000-07:002011-09-14T09:07:42.154-07:002012 Schedule ReleasedThe Toronto Blue Jays have officially released their 2012 schedule, and will kick off their season Thursday, April 5 at Progressive Field with a three-game set against the Cleveland Indians.<div>
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Jonah Birenbaumhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17710512915345313836noreply@blogger.com0